国际先驱论坛报 让投资处处开花

中国如今第一次允许它的公民到海外投资。这是一个重大的发展，原因有二。

　　第一，中国人是惊人的存款者，家庭储蓄有2.25万亿美元。这些钱当中如有一部分流入世界市场，那金融影响将不可低估。

　　第二，这一主动将给中国旺盛的股市提供一个重要的泄压阀。自2006年初，突然而大规模地转向股市投资已经推动股价上涨五倍。这种方式对全球股市和中国新富可能有重要影响。

　　中国公民传统上储蓄40%以上的收入。因此，该国的银行存款充足。庞大的资金助长了投资热潮，把中国变成世界顶级制造商之一。你可以说现代中国是建立在存款者的背上的。

　　传统上，普通中国公民没有多少选择，只能把钱存在银行。在九十年代以前，中国没有股市，而且股市刚开的时候，许多早期的投资者兴奋地冲入市场，然后被灼伤，然后发誓永远不再回来。在最近以前，中国最大和经营最好的公司通常选择离岸上市——主要在香港（被认为是海外）、新加坡和美国——中国大陆的投资者无法持股。

　　多年来，世界发展最快的大经济体拥有世界上最沉寂的股市。但几年前，在一系列提高对小股东的保护的改革后，投资者开始回到股市。同时，许多中国公司崛起成为全球巨人。中国的大公司如今在国内上市，投资者排队购买它们的股票。

　　从根本上来讲，这是一种积极的发展。股市在金融发展中起到关键作用，而中国存款者有了更多的选择。如果他们继续存钱，通胀会令存款贬值。欣欣向荣的股市文化已经蔓延到中国家庭，推动中国证券交易所日成交额超过纳斯达克最近的水平。

　　然而，短期内集结的势头已经达到危险的水平。中国股票比世界上任何主要市场的都要贵，然而每天都有数千新账户加入。由于那么多新手制造横财，中国当局担心他们会继续抱着极高的期望把资金投入国内股市。而且如果股市继续以目前的速度膨胀，大幅修正的风险只会增加。

　　因此中国的金融当局已经作出主动，允许公民通过专业管理的基金投资海外。中国越来越多基金管理公司、证券公司、银行和保险公司获得提供境外投资基金的资格。

　　在目前，合格境内机构投资者（QDII）计划是普通中国公民投资海外的唯一机制。但明年，中国可能在一个试验项目中允许公民个人直接购买在香港上市的股票，并可能扩展到其他市场。希望这些措施不仅帮助中国投资者通过持仓多样化减少风险，而且可以通过分流一些资金到海外给国内市场带来一股缓和的力量。

　　中国扩大海外市场准入还有另一个理由——给经济降温。有太多钱在中国周转，助长了通胀和过度投资。该国领袖希望，通过让中国公民投资海外，实现经济软着陆。

　　创造更广泛的投资选择，这对中国公民以及中国整体经济发展而言是个非常重要的机遇。问题是，该国的投资者会不会满意全球市场较平淡的回报。（作者 Jing Ulrich，美国一家重要投资银行的中国证券市场主席）

Let a hundred investments bloom

China is now, for the first time, permitting its citizens to invest overseas. This is a momentous development, for two reasons.

First, the Chinese are prodigious savers with some $2.25 trillion in household savings. The financial impact of some of this money flowing to markets around the world should not be underestimated.

Second, this initiative will provide an important release valve for an exuberant Chinese stock market, where a sudden and massive shift into stock investments has propelled share prices to a fivefold rise since the start of 2006. The way this plays out could have important implications for both global markets and China's newfound affluence.

China's citizens have traditionally saved more than 40 percent of their earnings. As a result, the country's banks are awash with savings. This large pool of funds fueled the investment boom that turned China into one of the world's top manufacturers. You could say modern China has been built on the backs of its savers.

Traditionally, ordinary Chinese citizens had little choice but to keep their earnings in bank accounts. China didn't have a stock market until the 1990s, and when it first opened, many early investors rushed in excitedly, got burned, and vowed never to return. Until recently, China's biggest and best-run companies usually opted to list offshore - primarily in Hong Kong (considered overseas), Singapore and the United States - where Mainland Chinese investors couldn't own them.

Thus for many years, the world's fastest-growing major economy had one of the world's quietest stock markets. But beginning a couple of years ago, investors began returning to the stock market after a series of reforms improved protections for minority shareholders. At the same time, many Chinese companies rose to become global giants - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Life Insurance Company and China Mobile are all the largest companies in the world within their respective sectors, by market capitalization. As China's leading companies are now listing at home, investors are queuing to buy their shares.

This is fundamentally a positive development. Stock markets play a crucial role in financial development, and Chinese savers need more choices. If they keep their money in savings deposits, inflation will erode its value. A thriving equity culture has spread among Chinese households, pushing daily turnover on Chinese exchanges to exceed Nasdaq levels in recent sessions.

However, the momentum that has built up in a short period has reached risky levels. Stocks in China are more expensive than in any other major market in the world, yet thousands of new accounts are being opened every day - more than 120 million stock-trading accounts and another 90 million mutual fund accounts have been opened so far. With so many first-time investors making windfall profits, the worry for Chinese authorities is that they will keep plowing funds into domestic stocks with stratospheric expectations. And if the stock market keeps inflating at this rate, the risks of a sharp correction will only increase.

This is why China's financial authorities - aiming to limit the supply of money pouring into the domestic market - have launched an initiative that allows the country's citizens to invest overseas through professionally managed funds. A growing number of Chinese fund-management companies, securities firms, banks and insurers are being qualified by regulators to offer overseas investment funds, under what is known as the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor program.

At present, the QDII program is the only mechanism by which average Chinese citizens can invest abroad. But next year, China may allow individual citizens to directly purchase stocks listed on Hong Kong's exchange in a trial program that would likely spread to other markets. The hope is that these initiatives will not only help Chinese investors reduce risk by diversifying their holdings, but also bring a moderating force to the domestic market by diverting some funds overseas.

Thus far, Chinese investors have jumped at the chance to invest abroad. Four overseas-stock oriented funds have been launched in recent weeks. Many more funds are waiting their turn. I expect at least $90 billion to leave the country through the QDII program in the next year.

China has another reason to widen access to overseas markets - to cool its economy. There is simply too much money circulating in China, which is fueling inflation and over-investment. By letting Chinese citizens invest abroad, the country's leaders hope to achieve an economic soft landing.

The creation of a broader range of investment choices is a very important opportunity for China's citizens, as well as China's overall economic development. The question is whether the country's investors will be content with more earthbound returns from global markets.

Jing Ulrich is the chairwoman of China markets at a major American investment bank.