洛杉矶时报 中国怠慢小鹰号发阴沉信息

分析家表示，中国先是决定阻止美国“小鹰号”航母计划已久的感恩节香港之旅，在24小时后“基于人道理由”松口，这是有着扇外交耳光的标志，只是它要扇谁的耳光还不是特别清楚。

　　中国外交部21日突然阻止“小鹰号”及其战斗群为期五天的访港，而且没有说明原因。“小鹰号”访港之前就得到批准而且筹划数周。一天后，中国外交部发言人刘建超表示北京会宽厚些，称改变心意只是基于人道考虑。

　　华盛顿国防刊物《中国安全》季刊编辑孔哲文（Eric Hagt）表示，“这有点奇怪。这一切似乎相当意外且不可知。”美国军方官员表示，中国国防部没有提供任何公开声明，也没有提供任何背后管道的解释。

　　夏威夷美国太平洋舰队发言人费罗斯特拉特（John Filostrat）表示，中国的转态太晚了。“小鹰号”尽可能等待，但后勤和坏天气迫使它离开。他补充说，“小鹰号”如今前往日本横须贺基地，并非美国的某种反怠慢举措。

　　学者设法解释中国政府的生硬背后有什么玄机，但信息模糊。那些说法包括中国是生气美国总统布什最近和达赖喇嘛会晤；中国对美国拟向台湾出售9.4亿美元的“爱国者-2（Patriot II）”反导设备升级系统不满；中国渴望在香港即将来临的选举之前发出信息；中国不满美国批评中国间谍活动的报告。

　　中国转态的原因之一可能是意识到公关灾难的前景。大约八千名美国水手要在海上度过阴沉的几天，他们的家属原本从日本和美国前往香港准备和他们团聚的。香港Quarterdeck Club（该俱乐部签订合同为这些饥饿的水手提供食物和娱乐）的经理Paul Buxton表示，（水手）的妻儿都坐在分域码头。

　　中国作出军事行动而显然没有考虑公共关系影响，这在最近已经不是第一次。在1月，当人民解放军摧毁一颗老化的气象卫星，在太空散落碎片并引发对其意图的质疑，中国外交部却毫无准备。为什么没有警告？中国高层领导事前有没有得到充分通知？

　　美国前驻华武官沃尔泽（Larry M. Wortzel）表示，这种混乱令人质疑是否值得为美中军事热线努力。正值摸不着头脑之际，有人赞扬本周的举动，尽管他们也不是很明白当中意图。

　　上海政法学院（Shanghai Institute of Political Science and Law）的军事专家倪乐雄（音译，Ni Lexiong）表示，“我猜美国对我们做了一些不那么友好的事情。出其不意很好，否则他们不会注意的。”

　　分析家表示，无论本周的变卦原因是什么，没有什么突出的事情。出于某些原因，北京显然对美中军事关系感到不满。台湾中国高等政策研究会秘书长杨念祖（Andrew Yang）表示，因为让小鹰号访港已经变成常规，因此这次给美国发出了强烈的信息。

　　有人认为，事件还表明中国并不总是用一个声音说话，而且它越来越愿意打民族主义牌。北京一家战略公共关系公司总裁沃尔夫（David Wolf）表示，有时候，中国政府告诉我们它并非单片集成组织，而且民族主义是团结所有人的极好办法。

　　对于Paul Buxton来说，他的餐厅如今将要处理掉1000磅的火鸡，1200磅的凉拌卷心菜，10万个汉堡和3000块比萨饼，这次经历是一次经济灾难。他表示，“整件事情令人难以置信。而且人人都说那不是他们的错。我可以怎么办？把帐单寄给解放军？”（作者 Mark Magnier）

China's snub of U.S. vessel sends murky message
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The aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk's Thanksgiving visit to Hong Kong is scuttled, leaving sailors at sea and their visiting families on land. But Beijing's point is unclear.
By Mark Magnier, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
November 23, 2007
BEIJING -- China's decision to block the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk from a long-planned Thanksgiving visit to Hong Kong, before relenting 24 hours later "on humanitarian grounds," had all the markings of a diplomatic slap in the face, analysts say. It just wasn't terribly clear whose face it was aimed at.

Word spread Wednesday afternoon that China's Foreign Ministry had suddenly and inexplicably blocked a five-day visit by the giant vessel and its strike group, despite prior approval and weeks of planning.

A day later, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao told journalists that Beijing would relent, saying its change of heart was "a decision out of humanitarian consideration only." Repeated efforts by foreign reporters to get him to explain the reversal failed.

"It's a little odd," said Eric Hagt, editor of China Security journal, a defense publication based in Washington. "It all seems rather unforeseen and unknowable."

China's Defense Ministry offered no public statement. Nor, said U.S. military officials, did it provide any back-channel explanation.

The Chinese turnaround came too late, said Lt. Cmdr. John Filostrat, a spokesman with the U.S. Pacific Fleet in Hawaii. The Kitty Hawk waited as long as it could, but logistics and bad weather forced it to leave.

The decision was not intended as some sort of U.S. counter-snub, he added. "It's now en route to its base in Yokosuka, Japan."

Pundits near and far sought to explain what appeared to be behind the Chinese government's blunt yet hazy message.

Theories included anger over President Bush's recent meeting with the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of Chinese-held Tibet; displeasure over an announced $940-million U.S. upgrade to Taiwan's Patriot II antimissile shield; a desire to send a message before an imminent Hong Kong election; and pique over a U.S. report that criticized Chinese espionage activities.

One reason China may have reversed itself was the prospect of a public relations calamity in the making, although in the end the damage was done. About 8,000 American sailors face several glum days at sea, after hundreds of their family members traveled to Hong Kong from Japan and the United States to meet them.

"Wives, newborn babies, are all sitting at Fenwick Pier," said Paul Buxton, manager of Hong Kong's Quarterdeck Club restaurant, which has a contract to feed and entertain the hungry hordes.

This is not the only time recently that China has made a military move without apparently considering its public relations implications. In January, the Foreign Ministry was caught flat-footed when the People's Liberation Army destroyed an aging satellite, spewing debris in space and sparking questions about the PLA's intentions, why there was no warning and even whether China's senior leadership had been fully informed in advance.

The snafu calls into question whether a proposed military hotline between the U.S. and China would be worth the effort, said Larry M. Wortzel, a former U.S. military attache in Beijing.

Amid the head-scratching, some praised this week's moves, even if they too were uncertain about the intent.

"My guess is the U.S. did something that wasn't so friendly toward us," said Ni Lexiong, a military expert with the Shanghai Institute of Political Science and Law. "It's good to let them know in a rather abrupt way, otherwise they might not notice."

Whatever the reason for this week's flip-flop, a few things stand out, analysts said. Beijing is clearly not happy with U.S.-Chinese military relations, for whatever reason.

"It's become routine to have the Kitty Hawk visit Hong Kong," said Andrew Yang, secretary-general of the Taiwanese-based Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies. "So this sends a strong message to the U.S."

The incident also suggests both that China doesn't always speak with one voice and that it is increasingly willing to play the nationalism card, some said.

"Sometimes the Chinese government gives us an example of how it is not a monolithic organization," said David Wolf, head of a strategic public relations firm in Beijing. "And nationalism is an excellent way to unify everyone behind one guy."

For Buxton, whose restaurant now faces the prospect of disposing of 1,000 pounds of turkey, 1,200 pounds of coleslaw, 100,000 hamburger buns and 3,000 pizzas, the experience has been something of a financial disaster.

"This whole thing is unbelievable," he said. "And everyone says it's not their fault. What can I do, send a chit to the PLA?"

mark.magnier@latimes.com

Yin Lijin of The Times' Beijing Bureau contributed to this report.