中央日报 韩国须为中国的通胀做好准备

今年，中国低通胀的日子轰轰烈烈地落幕了，给全球经济带来另一种威胁。今年1月到9月的通胀率是4.2%，比2005年和2006年的1%高得多。

　　特别是，8月的消费品价格比去年同期上涨6.5%，这是自2002年1月以来最高的比率。在第二季度，中国的平均工资比去年同期增长18.5%，这是自2000年以来最大的增长。

　　最重要的是，食品价格（2005年，占中国国内消费的三分之一）已经导致通胀加大。与此同时，住房价格也大力带动了通胀。住房价格被过剩流动带动，过剩流动是由于中国国际收支盈余和兴旺的股市所引起的。

　　自去年以来已经出现高价的中国出口品，可能提高全球的零售价格。在2006年上半年，中国每出口单位的价格比2005年同期攀升5.6%。中国价格的不断增长可能意味着韩国和其他十分依赖中国商品的国家会发生通胀。

　　问题是，在原材料价格下降以前中国无法缓和通胀的压力，而原材料价格在不久的将来不可能下降。

　　疲软的美元已经驱动全球投机资金进入原材料市场，让价格创出新高。如果美联储减息两三次以上，它将令自然资源价格更加膨胀，让中国的通胀率更高。

　　如果中国的通胀引起美国、欧洲和其他地方的高通胀，各央行将要费大力气回应，保持经济稳定。因此，美国和欧盟（已经忙于对付摇摇欲坠的信贷市场）将陷入衰退。它们的衰退不可避免将缩少中国的出口，间接影响亚洲其他地方。

　　由于过剩的流动性以及石油价格的高涨，预计韩国消费品价格在2007年第四季度上涨3%到4%。过剩的流动性必须减少。中国的通胀率和其他外部因素显然会令情况恶化。

　　鉴于全球局面的脆弱，韩国必须为高通胀和工业经济疲软做好准备。要让韩国通胀压力最小化的话，必须稳定房价，当局需要抵制把能源高成本转嫁给公共用户的行为。

　　出口竞争力也需要加强。美元的贬值削弱韩国产品的价格竞争力和出口商的底线。他们需要加强例如质量和设计等非价格竞争力，同时尽可能减少韩元升值可能造成的损失。这些并非容易的措施，但政府和企业的预防性行动将有助于减少中国触发的全球通胀冲击。（作者 Chang Jae-chul）

Korea must be ready for inflation in China

Higher-priced Chinese exports have been showing up since last year.

November 05, 2007

China’s days of low inflation came to a resounding end this year, introducing another threat to the global economy. This year’s January to September inflation rate was 4.2 percent, sharply higher than the 1-percent rate for all of 2005 and 2006.

In particular, consumer prices rose 6.5 percent year-on-year in August, the highest rate since January 2002. In the second quarter, China’s average wage leapt 18.5 percent year-on-year, the biggest increase since 2000.

Most of all, the price of food, which accounted for one-third of domestic Chinese spending in 2005, has led the inflation spiral. Along with food costs, housing expenses have substantially added to inflation. Housing prices are being driven up by excess liquidity caused by China’s international balance of payments surplus and booming stock markets.

Higher-priced Chinese exports have been showing up since last year, potentially raising retail prices around the globe. In the first half of 2006, China’s price per export unit climbed 5.6 percent from the first half of 2005. A steady rise in Chinese prices would likely mean inflation in Korea and other countries that rely heavily on Chinese goods.

The problem is that China will not get any relief from inflationary pressure until the prices of raw materials drop, something unlikely in the near future. A weakening dollar has driven global speculative capital into the raw materials market, sending prices to record levels. If the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates 2 to 3 more times, it will inflate natural resource prices even more, sending China’s inflation higher.

If China’s inflation sparks high inflation in the United States, Europe and elsewhere, central banks will be hard pressed to respond and keep economies stable. As a result, the United States and the European Union, already grappling with shaky credit markets, would teeter on recession. Their slowdown inevitably would shrink Chinese exports and indirectly affect the rest of Asia.

In the fourth quarter of 2007, Korea’s consumer prices are expected to grow between 3 and 4 percent, because of excessive liquidity and high oil prices. Excessive liquidity especially needs to be reduced. China’s inflation rate and other external factors obviously could exacerbate conditions.

Given the fragile global conditions, Korea needs to prepare for higher inflation and weaker industrialized economies. To minimize inflationary pressure in Korea, housing prices need to be stabilized and authorities need to resist passing on higher energy costs to public utility users.

Export competitiveness also needs to be augmented. The depreciation of the dollar is weakening the price competitiveness of Korean products and the bottom line of exporters. They need to enhance non-price competitiveness such as quality and design while minimizing potential losses from the won’s appreciation. These steps won’t be easy, but pre-emptive action by the government and businesses will help cushion the impact of China-triggered global inflation.

The writer is a research fellow at the Macroeconomics Department, Samsung Economic Research Institute.

By Chang Jae-chul [jaechul.chang@samsung.com]