中央日报 来自中国的警告信号

在过去的若干年里，东亚国家尽管国内需求不振，但呈现相对稳定的增长。强劲的对华出口推动了很多增长。

　　中国从周边国家企业的积极投资中获益。在九十年代，韩国、日本等开始大力投资中国。这些国家都受到中国廉价劳动力的吸引。它们大力投资劳动密集型产业，例如纺织和低端的电子产品。

　　然后到了2000年，投资的焦点开始转移。随着中国经济的上升以及国内需求的膨胀，西方西多跨国公司急切寻找中国市场的利基。同样地，韩国公司把它们的焦点转向汽车、半导体和手机等较高科技的产业。

　　结果，贸易模式改变了。东亚国家在中国的许多子公司从它们的母公司（或者从同属一家母公司的另一家子公司）进口零部件和中间产品，然后在中国组装，因为中国经济还没能提供所需要的零部件和材料。

　　因此，东亚国家到中国的出口增加。中国的出口程序如今有以下部分组成：从其他东亚国家进口零部件，向包括美国在内的工业化国家出口成品。这意味着中国和周边东亚国家之间已经形成了劳动分工或生产共享。这构成了东亚国家基于制造技术和元件供货的优势互补。

　　然而，最近，经济角色的分配又有了改变的迹象。投资中国的亚洲公司如今直接在中国国内采购，越来越少地从自己国家进口零部件。2005年，韩国公司44.5%的零部件和材料来自中国，39.9%来自韩国，15.6%来自第三国家，而在2004年，这些数字分别是40.8%，51.3%和9.9%。这意味着韩国公司从祖国购买的零部件和材料越来越少，越来越多地从中国和其他国家购买。

　　为什么会这样呢？首先，中国的技术能力迅速提高，促使在那里营运的公司直接在中国采购。第二，西方跨国公司从母公司引资，促进先进技术进入中国。最后，在中国采购或出售的产品可以取得来自中国不断增大的市场规模的经济规模。

　　国际劳动分工曾推进东亚对华出口，并促进地区经济融合。然而，随着中国增强生产能力，地区内贸易面临减速的可能，这反过来放缓向东亚之外的地区出口中国成品的速度。

　　包括韩国在内的东亚国家，其经济增长曾依赖对华出口，随着中国继续升级其工业能力，如今将必须更努力地发展更高价值、更高质量、更多选择的产品。（作者 Park Bun-soon）

[SERI COLUMN]Warning signs from China

China is making more and more of its own parts, which threatens Korea’s export economy.

November 02, 2007

For the past several years, East Asian countries have exhibited relatively stable growth despite sluggish domestic demand. Robust exports to China have powered much of the growth, which has benefited from aggressive investments by businesses from neighboring countries.

Korea, Taiwan, and Japan began to invest heavily in China in the 1990s. High domestic costs spurred Japanese companies to expand to China to strengthen their global production, while Korean and Taiwanese firms moved there to maintain their export competitiveness. All three countries were drawn by the promise of cheap Chinese labor. They all weighted their investments in labor-intensive industries, such as textiles and low-end electronics products.

By 2000, however, the investment focus had begun to shift. With China’s economy spiraling and domestic demand ballooning, many Western multinationals eagerly sought a niche in the Chinese market. Likewise, Korean firms shifted their focus to higher tech industries such as automobiles, semiconductors and cellular phones, while Taiwanese firms moved into semiconductors and laptops.

As a result, the trade patterns changed. Many East Asian subsidiaries in China imported parts and intermediate goods from their parent company (or another subsidiary of their parent company) for final assembly in China because the Chinese economy was not yet able to provide the parts and materials needed. Exports from East Asian countries to China increased as a result, with exports from the top five electronics intermediate products accounting for mo re than 50 percent of Taiwanese and Malaysian exports in 2006. Korea’s corresponding figure was 42.2 percent, while the figure for the Philippines was 83.7 percent.

In 2005, the share of parts and intermediate goods in the total exports from China jumped to 80 percent from less than 20 percent in 1987. In contrast, parts accounted for less than 20 percent of China’s total exports to the United States in 2005, down sharply from more than 50 percent in 1987. China’s export process now consists of importing parts from other East Asian countries and exporting finished goods to industrialized countries including the United States.

This indicates that a division of labor, or production sharing, has formed between China and neighboring East Asian countries. It deploys the comparative advantage of each East Asian nation based on their manufacturing technologies and component availability.

Recently, however, the assigned economic roles has shown signs of changing again. Asian companies investing in China now import fewer and fewer parts from their home countries and instead source goods directly within China. In 2005, Korean companies sourced 44.5 percent of their parts and materials from China, 39.9 percent from Korea and 15.6 percent from third countries, compared with 40.8 percent, 51.3 percent and 9.9 percent respectively in 2004. This indicates that Korean firms are buying fewer parts and materials from their home country, and more and more from China and other countries.

Similarly, Taiwanese companies imported 56.3 percent of parts from Taiwan in 1995, but only 40 percent in 2006. In 2006, Taiwanese manufacturers purchased 26.5 percent of their products from Taiwanese firms operating in China and 26.1 percent from non-Taiwanese firms in China compared to 18.3 percent and 18.8 percent in 1995.

Why is this happening? First, China’s technological capabilities are rapidly improving, prompting companies operating there to source parts directly in China. Second, Western multinational firms have induced investments from their parent companies, facilitating the transfer of advanced technology to China. Finally, any product sourced or sold in China can draw on the economies of scale that come from China’s ever-increasing market size.

The international division of labor has boosted East Asian exports to China and contributed to the integration of the region’s economy. However, as China strengthens its production capabilities, intra-regional trade faces an increased potential for a slowdown, in turn slowing exports of Chinese finished goods to areas outside East Asia.

East Asian countries, including Korea, that have depended upon exports to China for their economic growth will need to work even harder to develop goods with better value, higher quality and more selection, as China continues to upgrade its industrial prowess.

*The writer is a senior fellow on Asian economies at the Samsung Economic Research Institute. Inquiries on this article should be addressed to pbs21@seri.org.

by Park Bun-soon