时代周刊 中国感受到油荒

你下次抱怨汽油高价的时候，就想想马先生吧。这位在北京的小物流公司老板在本周早些时候被迫暂时关门，因为他简直找不到足够的柴油燃料来驱动他公司的20辆卡车。马先生表示，供应柴油的油站都很难找到，我一天损失10万元人民币。

　　当原油接近100美元一桶，全世界都感受到涨价之痛。然而在中国，涨价的影响是缺油，人们的脾气正变得火爆。上周末，山东省有一名男子在油站插队，结果被严重刺伤。10月30日，河南省发生类似事件，一名男子被杀死。

　　这种危机很大程度上是中国自造的。为了减少火热经济的通胀压力，自2006年5月以来，北京就没提过汽油价格（这是政府设定的）。在同期，国际油价上涨了大约30%，精炼厂原油成本高涨，出售汽油的利润萎缩。一些小炼油厂完全停产以避开损失，而另一些炼油厂开始囤积居奇，导致全国各地汽油短缺。

　　为了缓解这些压力，中国国家发展和改革委员会于10月31日宣布国内汽油和柴油价格上涨大约10%，称此举是压低需求和鼓励炼油厂提高产量所必须的“紧急措施”。价格上涨可能舒缓短缺——即，直到全球原油价格的下一次涨价，里昂证券的石油和天然气分析师关荣乐（Gordon Kwan）如是说。“当（中国）零售价比世界其他地方低差不多三分之一，生产者为什么要提高供应呢？最好的解决办法就是解除政府的限价。”

　　但鉴于北京的当务之急是维持社会和谐，这不大可能很快发生。关表示，“中国大部分人口简直无法承受国际油价。”中国的司机们当然同意。在北京油站等待加油的黄有丰（音译，Huang Youfeng）表示，“他们至少应该更耐心一些。开始时每升涨价两毛（人民币），这会更容易接受些。”讽刺的是，2000年以来的石油涨价有很大部分是中国的需求所引起的。该国如今是世界第二大石油产品消费者，在过去五年，消耗量每年增长8.7%。而世界其他地方的消耗增长仅为1.5%。

　　除了价格上涨（11月1号开始生效），政府还表示它将要求该国最大的炼油厂，国有的中国石化集团，增加产量，进口石油产品。中石化10月31日表示它将在11月全力开动炼油厂，承受“重大损失”以保证市场供应。它还将暂时停止汽油和柴油出口。然而，如同在过去，任何损失都可能由政府的数十亿美元补贴买单。

　　经济学家指出，中国高涨的需求至少部分是由于它人为的低价。中国和印度政府加起来一年提供大约150亿美元的补贴。麦肯锡最近的一份报告估计，“结束全世界的燃料补贴，对运输燃料的需求每天可以减少300万桶——大约是3.4%。”同时，最近的短缺可能至少令一名北京居民重新思考其个人燃料消耗。在油站排队的杜鹏（音译，Du Peng）表示，“现在我不得不重新考虑我购买一辆越野车的计划。”（作者 Kathleen Kingsbury）

China Feels the Fuel Pinch

The next time you complain about the high price of gas, think of Mr. Ma. The owner of small logistics firm in Beijing, Ma was forced to shut it down temporarily earlier this week after he simply couldn't find enough diesel to fuel his company's 20 trucks. "Gas stations even serving diesel have been difficult to come across," says Ma, who didn't wish to give his first name. "I'm losing 100,000 renminbi [$12,500] a day."

With crude oil closing in on $100 a barrel, the pinch of higher prices is being felt worldwide. In China, however, the impact of the hikes has been shortages at the pump, and tempers are running hot. Last weekend, a man was fatally stabbed in Shandong province after he jumped the queue at a local gas station. A second man in Henan province was killed in a similar incident Tuesday.

The crisis is largely one of China's own making. To reduce inflationary pressures on its red-hot economy, Beijing has not raised prices at the pump, which are set by the government, since May 2006. In that same period of time, international oil prices have risen about 30%, sticking refineries with spiraling costs for the crude they buy and shrinking profits for the gasoline they sell. Some smaller refineries stopped production altogether to avoid losses, while others begun hoarding their crude supplies, leading to gas shortages around the country.

In an effort to ease the pressure, China's economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, on Wednesday announced an almost 10% increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, calling the move an "urgent step" needed to tamp down demand and encourage refiners to ramp up production. The price hike is likely to alleviate the shortages — that is, until the next increase in global crude prices, says Gordon Kwan, a Hong Kong–based oil and gas analyst for CLSA Ltd. "When retail prices [in China] are nearly a third lower than in the rest of the world, why would producers want to boost supply?" Kwan asks. "The best way to solve the problem is to lift government regulation on prices."

But given Beijing's preoccupation with maintaining social harmony, that isn't likely to happen soon. "Most of China's population simply can't afford international prices," Kwan says. Chinese drivers, of course, agree. "They could have at least been more patient," says Huang Youfeng, waiting in line to fuel his sedan at a Beijing gas station Thursday. "Start the increase at 0.2 renminbi [2.5 cents] per liter — it would have been more acceptable." The irony is that Chinese demand has driven much of the nearly fourfold increase in oil prices since 2000. The country is now the world's second largest consumer of oil products, and consumption has grown 8.7% annually for the past five years. That compares with only 1.5% in the rest of the world.

In addition to the price increase, which went into effect Thursday, the government also said it will require the country's biggest refiner, state-owned China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, to increase output and imports of oil products. Sinopec said Wednesday it will run its refineries at full capacity in November, bearing "heavy losses" to guarantee market supply. It will also halt all exports of gasoline and diesel for the time being. As in the past, however, any losses will likely be covered by billions of dollars in government subsidies.

Economists note that at least part of China's soaring demand comes from its artificially low prices. Together, the Chinese and Indian governments provide suppliers about $15 billion a year in subsidies. A recent report by consulting firm McKinsey & Co. estimates that "ending fuel subsidies worldwide would cut demand for transportation fuels by three million barrels a day" — about 3.4%. Meanwhile, the recent shortages have led at least one Beijing resident to rethink his personal fuel consumption. Stuck in line at a gas station Wednesday, Du Peng remarked, "Now I'll have to reconsider my plan to purchase an SUV."

With reporting by Lin Yang/Beijing