2007/11/06

波士顿环球报 在中国,富比红更重要

从浦东的摩天大楼眺望河对岸(在20年前,那里只有泥泞的田地),或者看看云南丽江极其有趣的街上快活的中国游客,心里就会想起那个改变中国的、令人吃惊的革命口号:不管黑猫白猫,捉到老鼠就是好猫。

  邓小平的这句话是革命性的,因为它直接违背了毛泽东的又红又专。毛泽东曾发动无数意识形态运动,令中国瘫痪。重要的就是红,哪怕你什么都不懂。

  邓小平拿他的猫论主张实用性,接受人性,而不是试图塑造一个完美的社会主义人,这在他的另一句名言达到顶峰:“致富光荣”。

  许多中国人正是这么干的。根据媒体报道,中国如今有106位亿万富翁,仅次于美国。在2002年还没有这样的富翁呢。在最近的党代会,中国媒体重申中国拥有世界第三大经济体,仅次于美国和日本。20年前,它排在第29位。

  在邓小平取得最高权力之前,他曾两次被打倒为“走资派”。如今,人们不得不说他正是那样。邓小平说建设有中国特色的资本主义。但很难看到社会主义适用于何处,如今市场经济在大行其道。向“毛泽东思想”磕头的灰蓝装束群众已成为过去。收入肯定不是平等分配。新上海的浮华与乡间牛拉木犁的景象形成对比鲜明。

  如果说有什么的话,那就是社会主义意味着中国共产党的控制权。邓小平并非民主党人,他担心中国可能像戈尔巴乔夫的苏联一样瓦解。他把民主示威等同于混乱,而他在文革当中已经看过太多的混乱了。他说人民经历了十年的痛苦,不能再乱了。他可能说过社会主义和市场经济并不相互抵触,但他也说过社会主义不等于分享权力。

  尽管如此,过去二十年是中国在过去两个世纪里最美好的二十年。中国飞往月球的火箭似乎时间刚刚好地为上月的党代会加冕,而且它的奥运计划似乎就是为“她”初入社交界的宴会作准备。

  然而中国领袖似乎拼命保留社会主义的标签,正如美国政治家在讨论全国卫生保健之类的计划时避免使用社会主义的标签。

  中国是一个如此巨大的国家,它的问题不可避免也是特大号的。极端的污染威胁它的城市,蹂躏它的乡村。快速的变革令社会不安,规管的缺失伤害了它的出口,它需要驱动经济前进的商品资源,这种需求影响了世界市场。

  一个有趣的现象是中国取得非洲的努力。中国对非洲的兴趣可以追溯到20世纪50年代周恩来的努力。但最近在非洲大陆上的投资在世界各国看来与意识形态无关,却样样关乎商业。

  中国对非洲的政治没有兴趣,一位中国学者向我作出如此解释。中国需要的是非洲的商品,希望进入与非洲的互惠关系以取得这些商品。

  中国奇怪布什政府推广民主的热情(甚至是通过武力)——促使一位中国朋友说出以下的话:世界上只剩下四个由意识形态驱动的国家:古巴、朝鲜、(可能)伊朗和美国。对一个更具代表性的政府的渴望可能仍然是中国心口的痛,但在此刻,中国的精力集中于捕鼠。(作者 H.D.S. Greenway)

In China, better rich than red

SHANGHAI

THE VIEW across the river at the skyscrapers of Pudong, where only muddy fields had existed 20 years ago, or the sight of jolly crowds of Chinese tourists carousing in the impossibly quaint streets of Lijiang in the hills of Yunnan, called to mind the once-startlingly revolutionary slogan that changed China: "It doesn't matter the color of the cat as long as it catches mice."

The phrase, attributed to Deng Xiaoping, was revolutionary because it directly contradicted Mao Zedong's dictum "better red than expert." The old devil Mao had unleashed countless ideologically driven campaigns that had brought China to its knees. Being red was what was important, not whether you knew anything.

What Deng did with his cat analogy was to reel back ideology in favor of practicality, to take human nature as he found it rather than trying to create a perfect socialist man, culminating in another of his aphorisms: "To get rich is glorious."

And many Chinese have done just that. According to press reports, China now has 106 billionaires, second only to the United States. There were none in 2002. During the recent party congress, the Chinese press and television repeatedly claimed that China had the world's third largest economy, after the United States and Japan. Twenty years ago it ranked 29th.

Before he came to paramount power 30 years ago, Deng had been purged twice for being an "unrelenting capitalist roader." Today, one would have to say that's just what he was. "Build socialism with Chinese characteristics," Deng said. But it is hard to see where the socialism fits in anymore, now that a market economy is in force. Gone are the blue-suited masses who had to kowtow to "Mao Thought" in an Orwellian state. Income is certainly not equally distributed. The glitz and glamour of the new Shanghai sharply contrast with ox-drawn wooden plows in the countryside.

If anything, socialism means the control of the Chinese Communist Party. Deng, no democrat, feared China might disintegrate as did Mikhail Gorbachev's Soviet Union , even though Deng recognized, even before Gorbachev did, that communism was impractical. But he equated democracy protests with chaos, and he had seen enough of that in the Cultural Revolution. "Our people have gone through a decade of suffering," he said, and "cannot afford further chaos." Deng may have said that "socialism and a market economy are not incompatible," but he also said "socialism does not mean shared power."

The rising political expectations that followed Deng's economic and social reforms were squashed in Tiananmen Square 18 years ago. And any perceived challenge to state power is just as ruthlessly suppressed by Deng's successors. But for all of that, the last 20 years have been the best China has had in the last couple of centuries. China's rocket to the moon seemed timed to crown last month's party congress, and its plans for the Olympic games seem like the preparations of a debutante to celebrate her coming-out party.

Yet China's leaders seem as desperate to keep the tag of socialism attached to their society as American politicians are to avoid the socialist label when they discuss plans for national heathcare and the like.

It was unavoidable in a country so huge that China's problems would be outsized too. Extreme pollution stalks its cities and ravages the countryside. Rapid changes are unsettling society, lack of regulation is hurting its exports, and its demand for commodities to fuel its driven economy is affecting the markets of the world.

An interesting phenomenon is China's efforts to virtually acquire Africa. Chinese interest in Africa goes back to Zhou Enlai's efforts in the 1950s. But recent investments in a continent that so much of the rest of the world has written off as hopeless has little to do with ideology, and everything to do with business.

China has no interest in Africa's politics, it was explained to me by a Chinese academic. What China wants is Africa's commodities and hopes to enter into a mutually beneficial relationship with Africa to get them.

Chinese wonder at the Bush administration's zeal to promote democracy, even by force - prompting a Chinese friend to say that there were only four ideology-driven countries left in the world: Cuba, North Korea, perhaps Iran, and the United States. Desire for a more representational form of government may still beat in China's breast, but for the moment China's energies are concentrated on catching mice.

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