日本时报 中国坚持自己的方向

中共十七大的指导原则是连贯性。秘密会议同意把国家主席胡锦涛的“科学发展观”列入党章，把他的思想提高到官方正统的水平，和毛泽东、邓小平和江泽民的思想并列。从新的中央委员会也可以清楚看到胡锦涛不是过去那种全能领袖。他是平等中的首席（first among equals）。中国如今由领导人的共识来运作。这是节制的好兆头，但也表明领导人可能无法改变方向，哪怕出于情况的需要。

　　党代会奠定中国管理的理论和论调。胡锦涛的开幕致辞紧贴指引他任期的原则。持续强劲增长仍然是政府的当务之急，但胡锦涛坚称要在发展和环境和社会责任之间取得更好的平衡。双位数增长创造了巨大的财富，但也造成国内惊人的不平等以及污染噩梦。他呼吁党拥抱“均衡而可持续”的产出，这有利于保护中国社会的弱势成员，并减少极速经济发展的所造成的损害。这一承诺已经成为胡锦涛政府的标志，让他的政策和前任的有所区分。

　　他、他的党和他的政府仍然承诺改革。但政府的宗旨常常遭到阻力。权力下放给地方当局，令北京难以确保更公平和可持续政策得到推行。地方渴望发展，不愿意采取可能令收入或机遇枯竭的措施。结果就是中央政府政策和地方政府之间差距越来越大。北京政令的执行越来越成为问题。

　　胡锦涛的致辞还包括给台湾的建议。尽管他坚持台湾接受“一个中国”原则是谈判的前提，但他也呼吁两岸讨论正式结束两岸的敌对状态，并达成和平协议。他表示北京准备和任何承认两岸同属一个中国的党派对话，这是一个积极的迹象。同样重要的是，他没有像此前的领导人那样挥舞大棒。台湾政府承诺研究这项建议，表示它将观察大陆的行动。

　　新的政治局常委备受瞩目。维持常委内部的平衡也反映了胡锦涛自己的风格。他被认为是调节性的，喜欢渐进甚于大胆的转变。这显示中国将坚持它的方向——较多相同点，较少锋刃。这有利于领导层内部的决策，但如果国家面临紧迫的挑战，这就不是一个好兆头。胡锦涛明白面前的风险：他们为他的“和谐发展”政策提供了基础。中国所有新领导人必须分担他的关切。

China stays the course

Continuity was the guiding principle of the Chinese Communist Party's 17th Party Congress, which concluded last week in Beijing. The conclave agreed to enshrine President Hu Jintao's concept of "scientific development" in the party's constitution, a step that elevates his thinking to the level of official orthodoxy, along with that of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin. It is also clear from the new Central Committee that Mr. Hu is not the all-powerful leader of the past. He is first among equals. China is now run by a consensus among leaders. That bodes well for moderation but also suggests that the leadership may be unable to change course if circumstances require.

Party congresses lay out doctrinal and rhetorical guideposts for China's governance. The opening speech by President Hu hewed closely to the principles that have guided his tenure. Continuing strong growth remains the government's top priority, but Mr. Hu has insisted on a better balance between growth and environmental and social responsibility. Double-digit growth has created great wealth, but it has also yielded extraordinary disparities within China, as well as pollution nightmares. He called for the party to embrace "balanced and sustainable" output, which will help protect the weakest members of Chinese society as well as reduce the damage done by breakneck economic growth. This commitment has been a hallmark of Mr. Hu's administration and has served to distinguish his policies from those of his predecessors.

Nevertheless, he, his party and his government remain committed to reform. This can and often does work at cross-purposes for the government. Devolving power to local authorities makes it hard for Beijing to ensure that more equitable and sustainable policies are pursued. Localities are eager to grow and are reluctant to take steps that might dry up revenues or opportunities. The result is a growing gap between central government policy and local administration. Enforcing Beijing's dictums is increasingly problematic.

Mr. Hu's speech also included an overture to Taiwan. While he stuck to the long-standing demand that Taiwan accept the "one China" principle as a precondition for negotiations, he also called for the two sides to "discuss a formal end to the state of hostility between the two sides (and) reach a peace agreement." In a positive sign, he said Beijing was prepared to talk to any party that "recognizes that both sides of the strait belong to one and the same China." Equally significant, he did not brandish the stick as have previous leaders and as some expected. The Taiwan government promised to study the offer, saying it would watch China actions, which it said are a better indication of Beijing's intentions.

The most intense speculation at the Party Congress focused on the makeup of the new Standing Committee. This elite, nine-member body at the heart of the party reflects the real balance of power in Beijing. The previous Standing Committee included several holdovers from Mr. Jiang's administration who were seen as beholden to the former president. Removing them would have been a sign that Mr. Hu had consolidated his own power.

From this perspective, Mr. Hu does not have the power and influence of previous presidents. Five members of the previous committee carried over, and four newcomers emerged. The retention of Mr. Jia Qinglin in particular is seen as proof of the limits of Mr. Hu's power: Mr. Jia was party secretary of Fujian province when there was a multimillion dollar smuggling scandal. Questions linger over whether Mr. Jia was involved. Nonetheless, his presence on the Standing Committee casts a shadow over the government's anticorruption campaign.

The newcomers got most of the attention. The four — Mr. Xi Jinping, Mr. Li Keqiang, Mr. He Guoqiang and Mr. Zhou Yongkang — are seen as the core of the next generation of leaders. Mr. Xi is widely thought to have been tipped as Mr. Hu's successor when he steps down (as anticipated) in five years; Mr. Li is the front-runner to succeed Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. Interestingly, Mr. Li is thought to have been closer to Mr. Hu and his positioning to succeed Mr. Wen reinforces the thinking that Mr. Hu is not all powerful. Both men are considered moderate, probusiness leaders.

Maintaining a balance within the Standing Committee also reflects Mr. Hu's own style. He is considered conciliatory and someone who prefers incremental change to bold shifts. That suggests China will stay the course — more of the same, with less sharp edges. That will facilitate decision-making within the leadership but does not bode well if the country faces immediate challenges. Mr. Hu understands the risks that lie ahead: They provide the foundation for his policy of "harmonious development." All of China's new leadership must share his concerns.