国际先驱论坛报 中国麻烦，世界震动

正当人们日益担忧美国的低迷，中国也出现越来越多的麻烦迹象。尽管中国政府努力遏制增长，但极速扩张仍在继续。如果中国经济过热，对世界其他地方意味着什么呢？

　　中国官方报道的通胀率达6.5%，有经济学家认为真实的数据可能更高。如果对劳动力、设备、原材料和能源的需求超过了中国寻找供应的能力，价格上涨就会失控并震撼经济：硬着陆。由于中国之于全球商业的重要性，反响将是巨大的。

　　通胀问题有多糟？没有人真正知道是什么使它成为问题。香港中文大学经济系主任宋恩荣（Sung Yun-Wing）表示，他认为它没有得到正确的测量，因为政府处处实行价格控制。经济的庞大和黑市的流行加大了困难。但宋恩荣认为中国的出口成功肯定增加它的货币供应，因此更多的现金追逐稀缺的资源，推高价格。

　　问题可能已经到了不可收拾的地步。经济预测公司全球透视的首席全球经济学家贝拉维什（Nariman Behravesh）表示，即使中国政府继续试图放缓经济（它的认真程度尚有争议），也不能保证软着陆。“与美国相比，中国的政策工具仍然相当生硬。因此政策错误触发某种硬着陆的风险很大。”他补充道，大幅度提高利率可能“过度”。

　　如果情况如此，中国进入自己的低迷，那它的后院很可能感受到第一效应。中国可能在明年超过德国成为世界第三大经济体以及第二大贸易国，但宋恩荣表示它如今已经是东亚经济体的第一市场。贝拉维什表示即使日本都非常依赖中国作为其出口市场。但拉美和非洲许多新兴经济体也会受伤，因为它们向中国出售大量商品。

　　然而，别处的经济效应可能没有那么负面。贝拉维什表示，“对工业化经济体而言，情况就没有那么糟糕了，商品价格走低，尤其是石油价格，会真正帮助我们。”中国不断增长的需求加大商品市场的压力，这是推高价格的主要原因之一。此外，贝拉维什指出“我们没有向中国出口那么多。”

　　然而，这样阳光明媚的前景也可能变得黑暗，这取决于中国低迷的时机。如果中国低迷与美国的严重低迷同期，那全球经济可能就失去两个非常重要的引擎，可能导致贝拉维什所谓的“滚动性全球衰退”。但他认为这样的结果可能性很小，可能只有15%或20%。他认为，中国政府不大可能在北京奥运之前用力调整经济，到那时，美国的最坏时刻可能已经过去。

　　宋恩荣认为中国仍然有机会回避危机，它可以允许货币更快地升值。这样，中国的出口对外国人来说就会更贵，中国的进口对国内消费者来说就会更有吸引力。让人民币更昂贵也可能削弱对货币供应增长的需求，因此放缓通胀。

　　附近的一个经济体曾用类似的战术并取得一定程度的成功。宋恩荣表示，“如果你回顾八十年代中期的台湾经济局面，就可以看到台湾有极端庞大的经常帐盈余，货币供应迅速增长，在消费物价通胀后，资产价格膨胀。”“那时台币在几个月时间里升值很多。它并没有严重地破坏台湾的经济。我不是说中国大陆可以像台湾那样干净地摆脱这堆烂摊子，但并非不可能。”

　　但宋恩荣表示，即使中国躲过子弹，它的问题也并没有结束。他宣称中国更深层的问题是它的增长构成。如果它继续通过企业的有形资本投资和出口增长，那国际市场和通胀的压力就会轻易回归。但另一方面，消费者支出增加不会造成同样的压力。

　　换言之，它可能不足以令中国增长，但它将不得不学会享受它的增长。（原标题：中国酝酿麻烦，世界等待震动；作者：Daniel Altman）

Trouble brews in China and world awaits tremors

By Daniel Altman
Published: November 13, 2007

As worries mount about a downturn in the United States, there are increasing signs of trouble in China, too. Despite the Chinese government's efforts to dampen growth, the breakneck expansion has continued. If the Chinese economy overheats, what will it mean for the rest of the world?

The official inflation rate in China has risen to 6.5 percent, and some economists think the real figure is much higher. If demand for labor, equipment, raw materials and energy outpaces China's ability to find supplies, prices could shoot up uncontrollably and shock the economy: a hard landing.

Because of China's importance to global commerce, the repercussions could be enormous - though not, perhaps, all bad.

How bad is the inflation problem? Part of what makes it a problem is that no one really knows.

"I don't think it's measured correctly, because the government has imposed price controls here and there," said Sung Yun-Wing, chairman of the economics department at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

The vastness of the economy and the prevalence of black markets add to the difficulties. But Sung explained that China's exporting success was bound to have increased its money supply, so more cash is chasing the scarce resources in the economy and driving up prices.

The problem may already have gotten out of hand. Even if the Chinese government keeps trying to slow the economy down - and there is some debate about how serious its efforts have been - there's no guarantee of a soft landing, said Nariman Behravesh, chief global economist of Global Insight, an economic forecasting company.

"The policy instruments are still pretty blunt in China in comparison to the United States," Behravesh said, "so there's a big risk of a policy mistake which could trigger some kind of hard landing." Using a big jump in interest rates could "overdo it," he added.

If that happens, and China has its own downturn, the first effects will very likely be felt in its backyard.

China might well surpass Germany next year as the world's third-largest economy and its second-ranking trader, but already, Sung said, "It's the No. 1 market for East Asian economies."

Even Japan, Behravesh said, is very dependent on China as an export market. But many emerging economies in Latin America and Africa would also be hurt, he said, because they sell masses of commodities to China.

The economic effects might not be so negative elsewhere, though.

"It wouldn't be so bad for the industrialized economies, in that lower commodity prices, in particular oil prices, would actually help us," Behravesh said. The pressure applied to commodity markets by growing Chinese demand has been one of the main forces driving up prices. In addition, Behravesh pointed out, "we don't export that much to China."

That rosy picture could darken, however, depending on the timing of a Chinese downturn. If it came at the same time as a severe slowdown in the United States, the global economy would lose the strength of two very important engines, perhaps resulting in what Behravesh called a "rolling global recession." But he gave a small probability to that outcome, perhaps only 15 or 20 percent. The Chinese government, he said, was unlikely to tweak the economy until after the Beijing Olympics next summer, by which time the worst might be over for the United States.

Sung, the economics chairman, said China still had one chance to try to head off a crisis, by allowing its currency to rise in value more quickly. Doing so would make Chinese exports more expensive to foreigners and imports more attractive to Chinese consumers - two checks on Chinese industry. Making the yuan more valuable could also reduce the need for the money supply to grow, and thereby slow inflation.

A nearby economy once used a similar tactic with some success.

"If you look at the situation of the Taiwanese economy back in the mid-80s, Taiwan had an extremely big current account surplus, rapidly increasing money supply and asset price inflation followed by consumer price inflation," Sung said. "Then the Taiwanese dollar appreciated by a lot in just a few months. It didn't disrupt the Taiwanese economy too much. I'm not saying that China can get out of the mess as cleanly as Taiwan did, but it is not impossible."

But even if China did dodge the bullet, Sung said, its problems might not be over. He asserted that China's deeper problem was the composition of its growth. If it continued to grow through businesses' investments in physical capital and through its exports, pressure on international markets and inflation could easily return. Increased spending by consumers, on the other hand, wouldn't cause the same stresses.

In other words, it may not be enough for China to grow; it will have to learn to enjoy its growth as well