国际先驱论坛报 欧洲会否接受中国的钱

中国没有浪费时间，仅经历了大约四分之一世纪的资本主义就变成出口机器。如今它加速以投资者的身份走上全球舞台。

　　出口仍然是中国经济的基础，但国际商界精英的讨论如今集中在中国作为流入西方的资本（而不是商品）的源泉的潜力。在欧洲，中国在其经济中心的持久存在越来越有可能，无论是以股票和债券的形式，还是以新工厂和设备的形式，还是直接买下公司。

　　欧盟和主要欧洲国家（特别是德国）已经在思考如何取得适当的平衡：既鼓励中国投资的自由流入，又不至于受到来自中国国有公司政治带动的决策所影响。

　　在许多欧洲商界执行官和政治家心目中，如何对付中国的例子之一是中海油（Cnooc）案，这家中国能源集团在2005年试图收购美国能源公司尤尼科（Unocal）。它的尝试引起政治反弹，计划最终流产，对双方都没有好处：美国被视为对投资者不友好，这家中国公司不得不寻求别的地方。

　　大体上说，中国的钱分两股流向欧洲：中国公司用资金扩大它们的全球存在，以及所谓的“组合投资”——中国机构投资他们国家庞大的出口机器所积聚的资金。

　　外国直接投资的驱动方法类似于中国在1979年开始经济自由化时用于鼓励经济增长的方法。这种战略以优惠吸引外资进入中国，欧洲、美国和日本跨国公司的子公司变成中国主要的生产商和出口商。

　　不像处于类似发展阶段的日本韩国，中国人并没有依赖一个受保护的国内市场以提供基本的税收。因此与日韩相反，在中国的投资热很快到来。德勤（Deloitte & Touche）顾问王维（音译，Wei Wang）表示，他们在非常早期的阶段就在国内引入外国竞争，从而驱动中国公司快速向外发展。

　　来自经合组织和澳大利亚的两名经济学家在1月公布的研究援引中国海尔作为经典例子，说明中国体系如何在发展阶段早早创造进入国际市场冒险的公司。在国内面对韩国三星以及瑞典伊莱克斯等竞争者，海尔不得不在欧美扩张，在西方直接投资销售、分销和一些生产。这和30年前的其他亚洲公司很不一样，那些公司在建立国内市场主导以后才走向国外。作者认为，像海尔这样的中国公司为了长大而国际化，而不是起家于坚实的国内基础。

　　与流入中国的外资量相比，来自中国的外国直接投资总额仍然是微不足道的，但增长的迹象明显。

　　从中国流入的另一种类型的投资来自它1.2万亿美元的外汇储备，这些资金大力投资像美国债券等低产出的途径。中国今年宣布计划分出数千亿美元成立基金，寻求更好的回报。即使在该基金正式成立之前，中国就已经在美国私募公司黑石取得价值30亿美元的股权。

　　随着俄罗斯和中东能源生产国也渴望把它们的现金储备变成投资基金，直接投资西方企业的趋势引起兴趣，并可能影响欧洲的政治，对美国也有较低程度的影响。

　　德国政府和欧洲委员会都下令研究外国投资增加的影响——德国人着眼审查来自国外的大投资，并可能以国家安全为理由阻挡它们。美国的外国投资委员会已经在美国履行同样的职责。

　　德国财政部的一个专门委员会将在未来两月给出建议。同时，中国在聚集更多的钱以投资，令以下可能性加大：用于支付中国出口货品的每一块美元和欧元都可能以投资的形式返回欧美。

　　伦敦摩根斯坦利全球货币战略主管任永力（Stephen Jen）表示，忘掉储备吧，所有亚洲的储备都达到和超过饱和点。（作者 Carter Dougherty）


Will Europe accept China's cash?

FRANKFURT: With only about a quarter-century of capitalism behind it, China has wasted no time in becoming an export machine. Now it is hastening onto the global scene as an investor.

While exporting remains a foundation of the Chinese economy, the talk of the international business elite is now focused on China's potential as a source of capital - rather than goods - flowing into Western economies. In Europe, an enduring Chinese presence at the heart of its economy looks ever more likely, whether in the form of stocks and bonds, new plants and equipment or outright purchases of companies.

Already, both the European Union and major European countries, in particular Germany, are pondering how to strike the right balance between encouraging the free flow of Chinese investment without exposing themselves to politically driven decisions from state-owned Chinese companies.

"The mental gates are going up," said Pete Skinner, a British Labour member of the European Parliament. "This is not something we have had to deal with before, and it is going to be a hard issue."

In the minds of many European business executives and politicians, Exhibit A of how not to handle China is the case of Cnooc, the state-owned Chinese energy group that tried to purchase Unocal, an American energy company, in 2005.

The attempt brought a political backlash that eventually crushed the proposed deal and did not serve the interests of either side: The United States looked investor-unfriendly, and the Chinese company had to look elsewhere.

Broadly speaking, two streams of Chinese money are on their way to Europe: funds spent by Chinese companies to expand their presence around the globe, and so-called "portfolio investment," in which Chinese institutions invest the funds amassed by their country's vast exporting machine.

Foreign direct investment, the money put into real assets on the ground, is driven by the tack similar to the one China took to encourage economic growth when it began liberalizing its economy in 1979.

That strategy put a premium on attracting foreign investment into China, and subsidiaries of European, American and Japanese multinationals became major producers and exporters from China as a result.

Unlike Japan and South Korea when they were at similar stages of development decades ago, the Chinese could not rely on a protected home market to provide base revenue. So where their Asian neighbors could take their time, by comparison, the boom in Chinese investment is near at hand.

"They were subjected to foreign competition at home at a very early stage," said Wei Wang, a consultant with Deloitte & Touche in Düsseldorf who specializes in settling Chinese companies in Germany. "That had the effect of driving Chinese companies outward quickly."

A study published in January by two economists at the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development and one in Australia cited Haier, the Chinese maker of refrigerators and other kitchen appliances, as a classic case of how the Chinese system was creating corporations that venture into international markets early in their development.

With competitors like Korea's Samsung and Sweden's Electrolux producing and selling in China, Haier had to bulk up in the United States and Europe, with direct investments in sales, distribution and some production in the West. That was very different from other Asian companies that, 30 years ago, established dominance of their home markets before going abroad.

Chinese companies like Haier, said the authors, "internationalize in order to grow large," rather than starting out with a solid domestic base.

The aggregate amount of foreign direct investment from China is still negligible compared with what is going into the country, but signs of an increase are tangible. A study by Ernst & Young found that the number of major investment projects in Europe from the so-called BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India and China - rose by 50 percent to 153 in 2006, with a small but growing number from China.

The other type of investment ready to flow in from China comes from its $1.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves, which are heavily invested in low-yielding instruments like U.S. Treasury securities. China this year announced plans to hive off several hundred billion dollars into a fund that would search out assets that offer better returns.

Even before the fund was officially announced, China had already taken a $3 billion stake in Blackstone, the U.S. private equity fund.

With Russian and Middle Eastern energy producers also eager to turn their currency reserves into investment funds, the trend of investing directly in Western enterprises is piquing interest and possibly influencing politics in Europe, and to a lesser extent in the United States.

Both the German government and the European Commission have ordered studies of the effects of increased foreign investments - the Germans with an eye towards reviewing big investments from abroad and possibly blocking them on national security grounds. (The U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment, an interagency body led by the Treasury Department, already fulfills the same function in the United States.)

A special committee at the German Finance Ministry is due to make recommendations in the next two months.

In the meantime, China is accumulating ever more cash to invest, raising the prospect that every dollar or euro sent its way as payment for exported goods could return to the United States or Western Europe as investment.

"Forget about reserves," said Stephen Jen, global head of currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. "All Asian reserves are at or have exceeded saturation point."