雅加达邮报 中国的方向

一份国际报刊16日在头版刊登了中国主席、中共中央总书记胡锦涛与他的前任江泽民在15日党代会开幕式后握手微笑的照片。两位政治家微笑的交流反映中国政治的稳定与耐力。

　　许多国家（包括东南亚国家）和全球公司密切关注这次会议，以便为中国领导人可能的变更做好准备。中国是世界第四大经济体，尽管日本仍然是世界第二大经济体，但中国加速亚洲经济进程速度的角色正稳步超越日本。

　　尽管中国经济创造神话，但一直有批评指该国的民主远未能扎根。但说中国完全没有民主是错误的。各民主国家的民主程度是不同的，而且没有哪个国家可以宣称实施了最好或最理想的民主。

　　由于经济增长迅速，中国拥有迅速壮大的中产阶级。他们的力量也日益壮大。然而北京更愿意在经济上（而不是政治上）采纳自由价值。胡锦涛意识到政府别无选择，只能给予公众更多的空间表达自己的政治意愿。

　　在表面看来，共产党代表大会相当沉闷，然而，党员争取加入精英圈的激烈竞争是不可避免的。特别令人期待的将是政治局常委的新名单。虽然五年内可能发生各种事情，但外界至少可以较清楚了解谁将可能成为2012年的最高领导人。

　　中国如今已经成为全球经济的重要引擎。在世界任何一个地方都可以感受到中国的经济力量。但尽管经济创造奇迹，在民主、司法、经济及商业透明度方面中国仍然是发展中国家。

　　党代会将不可能产生任何特别惊人的事情。至少在未来五年，中国将有能力维持政治稳定。

China's direction

An international newspaper ran on its front page Tuesday a photo of Chinese President and Communist Party boss Hu Jintao shaking hands and smiling broadly at his predecessor Jiang Zemin after the opening of the party's congress Monday. Jiang reportedly remains powerful five years after he transferred power to Hu in 2002.

In a country like China, where political leadership is decided through secretive negotiations and intrigue, and where rulers are often put out in disgrace after losing power, the two politicians' exchange of smiles reflects the stability and endurance of China's politics.

One day later, The Jakarta Post ran a story and pictures of Li Keqiang from Liaoning and Xi Jinping from Shanghai, two Chinese regional politicians who are widely favored to replace President Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in the next five years. The story clearly indicates that succession has been proceeding quite smoothly in China.

Many other countries, including in Southeast Asia, and global corporations kept a close eye on the congress so they could begin preparing for a possible changing of the guard in China, dubbed the world's fourth most powerful economy.

Although Japan remains the world's second most powerful economy, China's role in accelerating the speed of economic progress in Asia is steadily overtaking Japan's.

Despite its economic miracle, there has been criticism, even inside China, that democracy in the country remains far from taking root. Of course for many democracies such a leadership succession looks awkward amid the speedy globalization process. But it is wrong to conclude there is no democracy at all in China. The level of democracy is different in each democracy, and there is no nation can claim to apply the best or most ideal democracy.

As a consequence of its skyrocketing economic growth, China has seen a fast growing middle class. That protests over the practice of slavery in remote areas, environmental destruction and human rights abuses by security forces and government officials are being covered more frequently by China's tightly guarded media indicate the growing power of the middle class.

Beijing however is much more prepared to adopt liberal values in the economy than in politics. President Hu realizes the government has little choice but to give the public more room to air their political aspirations.

The Communist Party congress looks boring on the surface because the closed-door sessions are dominated by propaganda and there is little criticism of President Hu. However, a tough competition for Party members to be included in the elite circle is unavoidable.

And the much-awaited news from the congress will be the new list of the nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, the top governing body. Although anything can happen in five years, at least the outside world will have a clearer picture of who will likely succeed President Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in 2012.

China has now become an important engine in the global economy. China's economic power can be felt in nearly every part of the world. But despite its economic miracle, China still remains part of the developing world in terms of democracy, the judiciary and economic and business transparency.

The party congress will unlikely spring any major surprises, because power struggles in China are strictly managed.

At least for the next five years, China will likely be able to maintain political stability because the struggle to replace Hu after his departure in 2012 has been anticipated during this congress.