纽约时报 在中国，政治的信息是连贯性

从中国国营媒体的报道来看，共产党在刚刚结束的十七大朝民主迈出了大胆一步。在中国主席胡锦涛向党代会的主要致辞中，民主这个词出现了61次。官方新华社报道说，党提名221名候选人来填补中央委员会204个空缺，这意味着那些宣布有资格的人当中有8.3%得不到席位。新华称之为“竞争性选举”。

　　当然，在现实中，中国的一党体系的列宁色彩重于杰斐逊色彩。它每五年召开代表大会，批准政策和人员的领导决议。信息不是改变，而是连贯性。

　　经过数月的秘密协商，新的政治局常委九名成员于22日上午第一次与公众见面。共产党执掌中国已经58年了。尽管充满活力的（甚至不计后果的）扩张已经成为该国泡沫经济的常态，但党变得更稳固，更可预见，更沉迷于仪式。

　　在担任中国一号领导人的头五年，胡锦涛一再表示增长高于一切的哲学有负面效果。太多的工人和农民没能从长期的经济繁荣中获益，党应该通过提供更好的国家支持的养老金、卫生保健和教育来重新分配，更多地照顾最困难的人们。

　　胡锦涛试图控制那些上有政策下有对策的省级当局。他推动一些决策权重归中央，减少浪费的国家投资，放缓污染工业的猖獗扩张。

　　中国已经取得一些进展。农业税取消了。打击污染以及提高能效的强硬指示公布了（哪怕是没有完全用上）。胡锦涛的“科学发展观”进入了党章。

　　然而，那些变化大多数是渐进的，在全体领袖达成共识以后才制定的。党代会进程并没有预示改革的步伐加快，或者更干脆地和传统割裂。

　　密歇根大学教授李侃如（Kenneth Lieberthal）表示，“胡知道他多想轻推制度前进。但目前尚不清楚他是否打算采取强硬措施。他满足于确定主要的要素，而把贯彻留给其他人。”

　　胡锦涛将主持政治局常委另一个五年任期。但他的管理仍然需要在同侪中建立共识。在政治局、中央委员会和省领导职务中，胡锦涛的印章更加清晰了。这表明他的权威可能增长，甚至追随他到退休以后。但对于那些希望内部变革加快步伐或者一尝真正民主滋味的人们来说，胡锦涛如今不大可能愿意（或可能有能力）实现。（原标题：在中国，更多的改变……；作者：JOSEPH KAHN）


In China, the More Things Change . . .

BEIJING, Oct. 22 — To judge by the reports in China’s state-run news media, the Communist Party took a bold step toward democracy at the just completed 17th National Congress, which approved a new leadership team to run the country.

President Hu Jintao used the word democracy 61 times in his main address to the congress. The official Xinhua news agency reported that the party nominated 221 candidates to fill the 204 full seats on the Central Committee, meaning that 7.6 percent of those declared eligible did not get a seat. Xinhua called this a “competitive election.”

In reality, of course, China’s one-party system still owes more to Lenin than to Jefferson. It convenes congresses every five years to ratify leadership decisions on policy and personnel. The message is not change, but continuity.

After months of secretive negotiations, the nine members of the new Politburo Standing Committee, the country’s top ruling group, were presented to the public for the first time on Monday morning. Their appointment was a fait accompli, and the stiff, scripted ceremony to introduce them, which lasted barely 10 minutes, resembled a Communist coronation.

The Communist Party has run China for 58 years. Despite the dynamic, even reckless expansion that has become the norm for the country’s frothy economy, the party has become more entrenched, more predictable and more enamored of its rituals.

Decisions are made collectively by a small, often invisible elite. They tussle over the spoils of one-party rule. But they agree on the big issues facing the country. They want fast growth, a nonaligned foreign policy and political stability. If they are about to try something new, their secret is safe.

“China has a tyranny of the middle,” said Frederick C. Teiwes, an expert on Chinese politics at the University of Sydney in Australia. “From the perspective of the leadership, things are going pretty well. They all want stability.”

In his first five years as China’s No. 1 leader, Mr. Hu argued repeatedly that the growth-above-all philosophy that began under Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s had side effects. Too many workers and peasants had not benefited from the long economic boom. The party should redistribute more to the least well-off by providing better state-financed pensions, health care and education.

Mr. Hu has tried to rein in provincial authorities who pay lip service to central government directives while managing local affairs their own way. He pushed to recentralize some decision making, reduce wasteful state investment and slow the rampant expansion of polluting industries.

Some progress has been made. Agricultural taxes were eliminated. Tough directives to fight pollution and improve energy efficiency have been issued, if not fully put into use. Mr. Hu’s theory of governance, labeled “scientific view of development,” was enshrined in the party’s constitution on Sunday.

Yet most of those changes are incremental, enacted only after the full leadership reached a consensus. Far from distancing himself from his predecessors, Mr. Hu has repeatedly pledged to follow the dictums of Mr. Deng and Jiang Zemin, presenting his own ideas as evolutionary.

And little in the proceedings of the congress foreshadowed a faster pace of change or a sharper break with tradition.

The new Politburo Standing Committee, like the old, consists of nine men. Even most of the new members are seen as beholden to Mr. Jiang, who at 81 has been fully retired for three years, as well as to Mr. Hu, now 64. The personnel shifts did not suggest that the president would have any new leverage to ram through an assertive agenda for change, even if he had one.

“Hu knows how he wants to nudge to system forward,” said Kenneth Lieberthal, a professor of politics and business administration at the University of Michigan. “But it is not clear that he intends to get tough. He is content to identify the broad elements and leave the implementation to others.”

Mr. Hu will preside over the Standing Committee for a second, and presumably a final, five-year term. But he still needs to govern by building a consensus among his peers.

The three officials who retired from the Standing Committee at this congress, including Vice President Zeng Qinghong, had all reached the party’s preferred retirement age of 68. Party officials said the removal of Mr. Zeng, who arguably had the most sway after Mr. Hu, had complex causes and required intricate negotiations. But his departure does not appear to amount to a decisive breakthrough that will give Mr. Hu unfettered new powers, they say.

Wu Bangguo, a low-profile figure who heads the party-controlled legislature, kept his post. So did Wen Jiabao, the cautious prime minister; Jia Qinglin, who oversees the party’s outreach to other interest groups; and Li Changchun, the propaganda chief. All of those men work collegially with Mr. Hu, but none of them would have received their initial promotions to the Standing Committee without the support of Mr. Jiang. Mr. Jia and Mr. Li might well have been pushed into retirement if Mr. Jiang had lost his influence, party officials said.

Two younger men elevated to the Standing Committee, Xi Jinping, 54, party boss of Shanghai, and Li Keqiang, party secretary of Liaoning Province, are now being groomed as the next generation of leaders.

But Mr. Hu’s first choice as his successor, Li Keqiang, now ranks one notch below Mr. Xi, the candidate viewed as more palatable to Mr. Jiang and Mr. Zeng. Party officials say that barring an upset, Mr. Xi will probably become China’s No. 1 leader in 2012, while Mr. Li will replace Mr. Wen as prime minister.

The two other officials promoted to the new Standing Committee, He Guoqiang, who will oversee the party’s internal disciplinary body, and Zhou Yongkang, the top judicial and law enforcement official, are widely thought to have closer ties to Mr. Jiang and Mr. Zeng than to Mr. Hu.

Mr. Hu put his stamp more clearly on the ranks of the regular Politburo, the Central Committee and leadership positions in the provinces. That suggests that his authority could increase and even, like Mr. Jiang’s, follow him into retirement.

But for those who hoped for a faster pace of internal change or a taste of genuine democracy, it is unlikely that Mr. Hu is now either inclined — or perhaps able — to deliver.