纽约时报 北京擢升有对台经验的军官

在下周的一次重大政治会议之前，中国已经擢升至少四位有对台作战策划经验的高级军官。共产党已经表示在下周的会议上它将采取新战略制止这个自治的小岛走向独立。

　　即使以中国爱保密的军队的标准来看，此举也是相当隐蔽的。北京上月擢升陈炳德（Chen Bingde）将军为军队总参谋长，他将行使该国230万人的部队的日常运作指挥权。

　　陈炳德在八九十年代晋身高层，那时他在台湾对面的南京军区出任一系列指挥职位。按照官方传记和军事分析家的说法，那是一个集中应对任何台海冲突的地方。

　　陈炳德之前的职务是总装备部长，带领中国军队硬件的快速现代化以及该国高调的太空项目。

　　国内媒体报道，曾在南京军区担任过若干职务的资深空军飞行员许其亮（Xu Qiliang）将军上月被任命为空军司令员。而且另一位拥有南京地区指挥经验的高级空军将领马晓天（Ma Xiaotian）已经被擢升为副总参谋长。

　　在中国七大军区更广泛的高层重组的早期阶段，吴胜利（Wu Shengli）将军于去年被任命为海军司令。吴胜利也担任一些重要职务，有在台湾海峡进行海上行动的坚实基础。

　　专家认为这些任命并非意图明确地威胁台湾，但是中国整体军事发展的一部分，军事发展的一个当务之急是在必要的情况下增强大陆对该岛的主权要求。

　　台北的中国高等政策研究会秘书长杨念祖（Andrew Yang）表示，这更广泛地传达了一个信息，北京在加强应对未来任何台海冲突的军事能力，更强调指挥官的品质。

　　专家表示，几年来，在身居要职的官员当中，有第一手对台冲突策划经验的官员的比重加大。专家认为，军委主席胡锦涛留意最近的军事擢升，而且很可能支持国防开支的进一步猛增。

　　一些中国军事专家对陈炳德将军晋升新闻的首次报道方式感到迷惑。9月21日，官方军事报纸以及其他官方媒体在一篇关于陈炳德和乌干达国防司令会面的报道上称他为人民解放军总参谋长。他接替梁光烈（Liang Guanglie）将军的消息没有官方的宣布。一些香港媒体报道说梁光烈将成为国防部长。

　　五年一度的党代表大会通常把重点放在国内事务以及党内事务，包括选择新一代领导人的复杂操作。但在台湾问题气氛紧张的时期，中国高级党政官员表示党代表大会的代表们将塑造处理该岛的新政策。

　　台湾的总统陈水扁以台湾名义加入联合国的公投计划触怒了大陆。北京把此次公投视为迈向独立的一步，并发出措辞严厉的警告。台湾最亲密的政治和军事盟友美国也批评该公投计划是不必要的煽动。到目前为止，陈水扁及其民进党似乎决心推进公投，让它与3月22日的总统选举一同举行。

　　多数安全分析家认为中国不愿意采取任何可能破坏2008年北京奥运筹备的对台行动。但他们认为大陆领导人不大可能任由台湾作出任何破坏北京收复该岛的目标的行动。（作者 David Lague）

China Promotes Taiwan-Focused Military Officers

By DAVID LAGUE

Published: October 10, 2007

BEIJING, Oct. 9 — China has promoted at least four senior military officers with experience in planning for war over Taiwan, ahead of a major political meeting next week at which the Communist Party has said it will adopt a new strategy to stop the self-governing island from moving toward independence.

In a move that was quietly handled even by the standards of China’s secretive military, Beijing last month elevated Gen. Chen Bingde of the army to chief of the general staff, a post where he will exercise day-to-day operational command of the country’s 2.3 million-member armed forces.

As General Chen was promoted through the senior ranks in the 1980s and 1990s, he held a series of command posts in the Nanjing Military Region opposite Taiwan, where China has concentrated its preparations for any conflict over the island, according to official biographies and military analysts.

General Chen’s previous post was director general of the general armaments department, where he led the rapid modernization of Chinese military hardware and the country’s high-profile space program.

Gen. Xu Qiliang, a veteran air force pilot who served in a number of operational and staff posts in the Nanjing military region, was appointed head of the air force last month, state news media reported.

Last month, state news media reported that another air force officer with command experience in the Nanjing region, Gen. Ma Xiaotian, had been promoted to deputy chief of the general staff.

In the earlier stages of a wider reshuffling of top posts through China’s seven military regions, Adm. Wu Shengli was appointed last year to head the navy.

Admiral Wu also held critical posts that gave him a solid grounding in naval operations in the Taiwan Strait.

Experts say these appointments are not intended specifically to threaten Taiwan, but are part of China’s overall military development, where a top priority is enforcing the mainland’s claim of sovereignty over the island if necessary.

“It sends a message more broadly that Beijing is enhancing its military capability to deal with Taiwan in any future conflict,” said Andrew Yang, secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a security policy institute based in Taipei, Taiwan. “There is more emphasis on the quality of the commanders.”

The proportion of officers holding important command positions with firsthand experience in planning for a conflict over Taiwan has been increasing in recent years, experts say.

The promotion of senior officers with exposure to planning about Taiwan comes as President Hu Jintao consolidates his power over the military before the 17th Party Congress, which is scheduled to open on Monday.

Mr. Hu, who is also chairman of the Central Military Commission, the top military decision-making body, has overseen recent military promotions and is quite likely to support further sharp increases in defense spending, analysts say.

Some experts on the Chinese military were puzzled over the manner in which General Chen’s promotion was first reported.

In a short item carried in the official military newspaper and other state news media on Sept. 21, General Chen was described as the People’s Liberation Army’s chief of the general staff in a report about a meeting he held with the head of Uganda’s armed forces.

There has been no official announcement of his promotion to replace Gen. Liang Guanglie. Some Hong Kong newspapers have reported that General Liang will become defense minister.

Party congresses, held about every five years, usually focus on domestic issues and internal party business, including the complex maneuvering over selecting the next generation of leaders.

But, at a time of rising tension over Taiwan, senior Chinese government and party officials have said that delegates to this congress would fashion a new policy to deal with the island, which Beijing considers part of its territory.

The president of Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian, has angered the mainland with his plan to hold a referendum on whether the island should rejoin the United Nations under the name of Taiwan rather than its official title, the Republic of China. Taiwan lost its United Nations seat to China in 1971.

Beijing regards the referendum as a step toward independence and has issued a number of strongly worded warnings. The United States, Taiwan’s closest political and military ally, has also criticized the referendum plan as needlessly provocative.

So far President Chen and his governing Democratic Progressive Party appear determined to press ahead with the referendum, which is to be held alongside the presidential election on March 22.

Most security analysts say China would be reluctant to take any action against Taiwan that could mar preparations for the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

But, they say, the mainland leadership would be unlikely to allow Taiwan to make any move that would undermine China’s aim of regaining control over the island.