彭博社 不那么像噩梦的中国非洲梦

一项商业交易勾起投资者和政治科学家同样的兴趣，这是少有的。中国工商银行购买非洲第一大银行20%的股权，此举就是这样的一项交易。

　　这是中国公司最大的一笔海外投资，而以市值来看，这家公司是世界第一大银行。工商银行斥资56亿美元收购标准银行股权，这是南非1994年结束种族隔离制度以来面对的最大收购。

　　然而，还有更大型的事情在上演。可以论证这是中国在非洲的第一笔不带有政治战略痕迹的投资。而且这笔交易跟中国对资源的渴望没有直接关系。工商银行的标准银行交易可能是一个分水岭，开始推动中国对非洲的构思从谈话到普通的商业，以及精明的生意。

　　北京大学金融教授佩蒂斯（Michael Pettis）认为，从监管者的角度来看，这种多样化是个很好的构想。中国的银行在中国过于高度集中，只依赖中国的增长不符合它们的最佳利益。这种依赖性是高度亲周期性的，而且可能支持繁荣和萧条的循环。

　　总部位于约翰内斯堡的标准银行在南非有713个分布，在整块大陆有240个分部。这笔交易显示，尽管中国共产党有投资非洲的战略理由，但公司为了经济潜力涌向非洲。

　　直到现在，中国在非洲的推进引起全球警告。它非礼勿视非礼勿听的做法引起不满。如果不是公众对中国支持苏丹的批评，难以相信巴菲特的Berkshire Hathaway公司会抛售它在中国石油的全部股权。

　　工商银行在标准银行的股权却没有这种负担。它是国家控制的银行，政治和生意很难分得一清二楚。然而这场交易显示中国如今投注非洲经济。

　　标准银行获得进入增长最快的大经济体，充实资本基础。中国得以立足非洲新兴的投资银行和保险业。这也是一种做事方式：中国把日益增长的财富推向海外，而不是制造新的国内贷款——可能变成坏帐或加剧通胀。

　　工商银行交易的一个有趣因素在于它和西方银行惯常的序曲不同。工商银行没有要求对标准银行有多少控制权。它没有要求金融改革的承诺。这仅仅是一家银行以透明的条款和条件收购另一家银行的一块。这是一个征兆：中国的经理人愿意把非洲人视为同侪。

　　西方的援助计划和训诫没有吸取到这点教训。通过尝试新的方针。中国可能试探发展经济学家争执多年的观点：非洲不需要更多的援助，它需要更多真诚的投资和贸易。

　　中国公司显然在非洲看到纽约、伦敦和东京许多人所看不到的东西。如果打起精神的话，非洲代表着巨大的、有利可图的商业机遇。

　　投资者还关注另一个有趣的角度。观察工商银行和中国其他最近的交易——例如中信收购贝尔斯登的股权，显然看到有些转变在发生。近年来，中国在金融公司寻求外国投资，以征集资本和获得专门知识。如今，贸易、股票发行和猛涨的股价带来了充沛的现金，中国不再需要华尔街的钱。而是外国人越来越希望分得一点中国的钱。

　　中国可能刚刚找到一个办法，缓和它自己的压力，接入非洲而不必背负过去的包袱。（作者 William Pesek）

China's Africa Dream Is Looking Less Nightmarish: William Pesek

By William Pesek

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- It's rare that a business deal intrigues investors and political scientists alike. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.'s move to buy 20 percent of Africa's largest bank is such a transaction.

It's the biggest overseas investment by a Chinese company, in this case the world's No. 1 bank by market value. ICBC's $5.6 billion purchase of the Standard Bank Group Ltd. stake is the largest in South Africa since apartheid ended in 1994.

Yet there's something even bigger at play here. This is arguably the first Chinese investment in Africa that doesn't carry a whiff of political strategy. Nor is it directly related to China's desire for resources, which can often help despots more than African households.

ICBC's Standard Bank deal may be the watershed that begins propelling China's designs on Africa from talk to just plain business, and smart business at that.

``From the regulators' point of view, this kind of diversification is a great idea,'' says Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University. ``Chinese banks are too highly concentrated in China and it's not in their best interest that banks depend exclusively on Chinese growth. That kind of dependence is highly pro-cyclical and can feed booms and busts.''

Standard Bank has offices in 18 African countries, including Nigeria and Kenya, and 21 other nations such as Argentina and Taiwan. The Johannesburg-based bank has 713 branches in South Africa and 240 throughout the continent. The deal is a sign that even if the Chinese Communist Party has strategic reasons for investing in Africa, companies are heading there for the economic potential.

See No Evil

Until now, China's Africa push has raised warning flags around the globe, and rightfully so. To get resources to feed its 11.5 percent growth, China has hopped into bed with some of Africa's most unsavory regimes, such as Sudan's and Zimbabwe's. That see-no-evil-hear-no-evil approach is raising eyebrows.

Warren Buffett can deny it all he wants, but it's hard to believe that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. would have dumped its entire holding of PetroChina Co., Asia's biggest oil company, without the public criticism over China's support of Sudan.

PetroChina's state-controlled parent is the biggest foreign investor in Sudan. PetroChina's stock gained more than 11-fold since Buffett first bought it in 2003. And yet he recently abandoned what he says is ``absolutely a first-class company.''

Buffett was under increasing pressure from human-rights groups over accusations that the Sudanese government supports genocide. There was even a role for actress Mia Farrow, who helped publicize the worldwide campaign to dub next year's games the ``Genocide Olympics.''

No Baggage

ICBC's stake in Standard Bank comes without that kind of baggage. It's a state-controlled China bank, making it hard to figure out where politics end and business begins. Yet the deal shows China is now making bets on Africa's economy.

Standard Bank is gaining access to the fastest-growing major economy and fattening its capital base. China is getting a foothold into Africa's nascent investment-banking and insurance industries. It's also a way for China to use its growing cash piles overseas rather than making fresh domestic loans that may go bad or fuel inflation.

All this is stellar news for Africa, which usually suffers from the ``paradox of plenty.'' All too often, inhabitants of resource-rich nations fail to prosper while corrupt politicians and their cronies get wealthy and ignore the development needs of the struggling masses.

That has been Africa's experience for far too long. And the failure of Western efforts to reverse the dynamic left the region's leaders open to Chinese investment.

Investment, Not Aid

One interesting element of ICBC's deal is how different it is from the usual overture from Western banks. It didn't come laden with demands about how much control ICBC will have over Standard Bank. It didn't require pledges for financial change. It's merely one bank buying a piece of another with transparent terms and conditions. It's a sign Chinese managers are willing to treat Africans as peers.

The West hasn't learned that lesson with its aid programs and lecturing. By trying a new tack, China may be testing what development economists have argued for years: Africa doesn't need more aid, it needs more genuine investment and trade.

Bono and Columbia University's Jeffrey Sachs will keep plugging away, and thank the gods for that. But Chinese companies appear to see something in Africa many in New York, London and Tokyo don't. Africa represents huge and lucrative business opportunities if it gets its act together.

That's a big ``if.'' With the exception of Botswana and Ghana, Africa's biggest consistency seems to be to pull the rug out from under wide-eyed investors. China's interests are offering Africa a rare opportunity to boost its economies.

China's Money

Another interesting angle here concerns investors. Looking at ICBC along with other Chinese deals of late -- like Citic Securities Co. buying a stake in Bear Stearns Cos. -- it's clear something transformational is afoot.

In recent years, China sought foreign investments in financial firms to shore up capital and gain expertise. Now, cash-rich from trade, stock offerings and surging share prices, China no longer needs Wall Street's money. Increasingly, it's foreigners who want a cut of China's money.

``Getting access to China's market may no longer require putting money in China,'' says Brad Setser, director of research at Roubini Global Economics LLC in New York. ``It may instead require accepting investment from China.''

China may have just found a way to tame its own pressures and tap Africa without the baggage of the past.