独立报 中国掌握旋转市场的钥匙

任何经历过两个以上全球经济周期的人都会知道骤降和急升是什么感觉。因此我们知道确实存在经济周期这种东西。麻烦在于每一个周期都有点不同，以不同的方式影响各国。不仅周期不同，而且发生在一个周期的事情会影响后来的周期。

　　这个周期的新因素，以及令它难以校准的事物，就是中国经济的增长。今年发生了一些特别的事情，一些之前从没发生过的事情。美国仍然是世界最大经济体，但今年它对世界新增长的贡献少于中国对世界的。我们很多人以为事情正在发生，但上周国际货币组织确认了这个信息。

　　你可以自己算一下。中国经济只有美国经济四分之一那么大，但增长速度却是四倍以上。而且它新增的需求比整个欧元区还多。

　　你可以在日常生活中看到需求的实际效果，最明显的是在加油站。尽管难以作出精确计算，但我猜想假如中国的增长率较为正常（即4%到5%），而不是目前的12%，石油价格将是60美元，而不是90美元，而且我们每公升燃料的价格会低于90便士。但这只是一个小小的例子：全世界的商品价格，包括基本食品，将可能大为降低。中国是一个处于发育期的饥饿少年，吞噬了世界各种资源。

　　中国还影响金融市场，只是其方式更难评估。它的出口产生了巨大的贸易盈余，而这种盈余投资世界各地的资产。直到最近，大部分流入美国政府证券。但如今，它和亚洲及中东其他盈余国家作多样性投资，涉足其他货币和资产。这肯定有长远的意义。但它制造了新的不稳定因素。

　　我认为，如果不是这个饥饿的少年，世界经济和世界金融市场会比如今更恐惧。你听说过当美国打喷嚏，欧洲就感冒吧。当美国经济走下坡，欧洲受到的打击就更大了。在此刻，不仅是美国经济放缓，还有来自次贷的破坏，当然，这种破坏摧毁了北石（Northern Rock）的业务，并继续削弱全世界的银行。

　　但是，当中国以目前的速度增长，世界经济将保持增长。如果是这样，在世界市场出售的国际公司将仍然有利可图。同时，中国，加上中东和俄罗斯，将不得不在某处投资它们的积蓄。派对会继续，哪怕是美国和欧洲许多国家只能坐观下几支舞。这一次，正是中国令事情如此不同。

　　我猜想你几乎会说这个周期的中国等于上个周期的科技热。当然这种类比并不精确：一个是经济体，另一个是一套技术。但两者都有着延长世界经济增长阶段的效果。

　　我们要怎样解释这一切呢？我认为，有些东西要紧紧握住。一是，以历史标准来看，大多数发达市场的股价并非高得可笑。2000年是，但如今不是。

　　第二，中国的增长是真实的。我上月游历了半打中国城市，在它们的郊区，新房产开发如雨后春笋般蓬勃。你可以看到中国如何使用世界产出的一半水泥。增长最终将放缓，但不会这么早。

　　第三，几个月前的兴高采烈已经消退，而这是力量的源泉。银行家已经变得十分担忧。这是好事。当他们不忧心的时候他们就会做蠢事，如今他们将变得明智。第四，技术帮助。公司已经大力投资新技术，并继续这样做，这有助于他们提供更好的产品和服务。最后，由于原料价格上涨，非洲最落后的部分已经开始从世界经济的增长中获益。那也是好事。（作者 Hamish McRae）


Hamish McRae: China holds the key to gyrating markets

Published: 24 October 2007

The markets have been gyrating up and down again. What are they trying to tell us, and should we worry?

Anyone who has gone through a couple of global economic cycles will know what it feels like to head into the dips as well as the upswings. Most of us at least will be aware of the last dip, characterised by the dot.com bust of the early 2000s, and probably the one before, which led to falling property prices in the early 1990s and brought a new and disagreeable concept into everyday language, negative equity.

So we know the animal exists: there is such a thing as the economic cycle. The trouble is that each cycle is slightly different and affects countries in different ways. In the early 1990s, the UK did rather worse than most large economies, with housing, in particular, suffering badly and unemployment soaring. In more recent cycles, we did relatively well, for though share prices had their worst bear market since the mid-1970s, the economy continued to grow throughout the downswing, and as for property prices, well, we have had the mother of all house booms.

Not only are the cycles different, what happens in one cycle affects the subsequent one. For example, the kicking out of sterling from the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992, and the subsequent fall in interest rates, was one of the features that led to the longest boom the country has ever known. The very low interest rates worldwide after the dot.com bust fuelled the present housing boom. That supported growth at the time, but probably (we don't yet know for sure) will have led to a long plateau in house prices worldwide. Prices are already falling in some markets and this has become a serious drag on the world economy.

The financial markets have all this information but they struggle to interpret it wisely. They were blindsided by the dot.com boom, failing early on to grasp how important the new technologies were, and then overcompensating by inflating their significance. Those famous words "it is different this time" are always half wrong and half right.

The new factor in this cycle, and what makes it so difficult to calibrate, is the growth of the Chinese economy. Something extraordinary is happening this year, something that has never happened before. While the US remains the world's largest economy, this year it is adding less new growth to the world than China. A lot of us thought this was happening but last week it was confirmed by the International Monetary Fund.

You can do the sums yourself. The Chinese economy is only about a quarter the size of the US but it is growing more than four times as fast. It is also, by the way, adding more new demand than the entire euro area put together.

You can see the practical effect of this demand in everyday life, most obviously at the petrol pumps. It is impossible to do a precise calculation, but I would guess that were China growing at a more normal rate, say 4 to 5 per cent, rather than its present 12 per cent, the oil price would be $60 instead of $90, and we would be paying less than 90p per litre for our fuel. But that is just a tiny example: all world commodity prices, including basic foods, would be much lower. China is a hungry growing teenager, gobbling up resources from every store in the world.

China is also affecting financial markets, though in ways that are even harder to assess. Its exports are generating a huge trade surplus and this surplus is being invested in assets around the world. Until recently, most went into US government securities. But now it, and the other surplus countries in Asia and the Middle East, are diversifying into other currencies and other assets. That must make long-term sense. But it creates new uncertainties.

Were it not for this hungry teenager, I think both the world economy and its financial markets would be even more scared than they are right now. You know the saying that when America sneezes, Europe catches a cold. Well, when the US economy turned down, it hit Europe even harder. At the moment, it is not just the US economy that is slowing; in addition there has been all the disruption from the sub-prime mortgages, disruption that, of course, has destroyed the business of Northern Rock and is continuing to weaken banks around the world.

We are not through this yet by any means. Even when the money markets settle, the concern will remain elsewhere: company profitability, the ability of heavily indebted consumers to maintain their lifestyles, maybe also the drag from lower house prices. These are the concerns that have swept through the markets in recent days.

But – and this is a huge but – while China carries on growing at the present rate, the world economy will keep growing. And if that happens, international companies selling to world markets will carry on being profitable. Meanwhile, China, plus the Middle East and Russia, will have to invest their savings somewhere. The party will continue, even if America and maybe much of Europe has to sit out the next few dances. China is what makes it different this time.

So I suppose you could almost say that China is the equivalent for this cycle of the dot.com boom during the last one. Of course, the parallel is not exact: one is an economy, the other a set of technologies. But both have the effect of prolonging the growth phase of the world economy.

The markets half understand all this but because it is all so new they find it hard to cope. So they whizz down, whizz back up, wonder whether they have made a mistake, wonder what they are missing – generally work themselves into a tizz.

So what should we make of all this? There are, I think, some things to hang on to. I can think of five. One is that share prices in most developed markets are not ridiculously high by historic standards. They were in 2000, but they are not now.

A second thing is that this China growth is real. It is scary to see. I travelled to half a dozen Chinese cities last month, and on the outskirts of each, vast new housing developments were springing up. You could see how China was using half the world's production of cement. That growth will slow eventually, but not just yet.

A third thing is that the euphoria of a few months ago has dissipated and that, paradoxically, is a source of strength. Bankers have become very worried. That is good. When they are not worried they do stupid things; now they will be sensible. Fourth, technology helps. Companies have invested an enormous amount in new technologies and continue to do so; that will help them deliver better value products and services. And finally, at last parts of Africa, helped by raw material prices, have started to benefit from growth in the rest of the world economy. That is good, too.