环球邮报 觉察中国经济泡沫

2007年下半年的中国有着各种泡沫经济的标志。繁荣城市的工地上起重机闹哄哄。上海的房价已经翻了一倍。上海股市的主要指数刚刚跨越6000点，在两年内升五倍以上。

　　按照市值，排在世界前二十位的公司中国占了8家，而美国7家，西欧4家，俄罗斯1家。这没有真正的意义，无助于复活对1989年的日本的记忆，就在泡沫破裂前，日本占了20家中的14家。

　　但看起来像是泡沫的并不总是泡沫。中国的市场和资产值在破裂以前可能继续升一段时间，就像美联储主席格林斯潘在九十年代科技股上涨中期发出著名的“非理性繁荣”警告后，美国市场还继续升了一段时间。

　　没错，在此刻，中国看起来格外泡沫。8月通胀率达6.5%，为11年来最高水平。第二季度经济增长率达11.9%，是12年来最快的。中国在上半年的贸易盈余达1150亿美元，比一年前高了85%。

　　股市疯涨。农民和靠退休金过活的人们也投入毕生积蓄登上股市的花车，这肯定是破裂逼近的迹象。格林斯潘表示，今春中国股价“显然不可持续”。

　　是吗？上海交易所的上涨仍然比八十年代东京交易所和九十年代末纳斯达克指数的要小。此外，它发生在中国股市长期下跌之后。在开始令人瞩目的上升之前，从2001年到2005年，股价实际跌了一半以上。

　　现在考虑一下房价。自2002年来，中国房价上涨30%，幅度比美国的46%要小。经济学家谢国忠（Andy Xie）在《金融时报》中撰文指出，中国住宅物业总值是国内生产总值的1.7倍，1989年的日本是4.5倍，1997年房市破产前的香港是7.5倍。

　　日本在泡沫破裂后经历十年以上的经济停滞，香港也过了几年苦日子。目前尚不清楚中国大陆会不会发生同样的事情。尽管股市最近很旺，但只有十分之一的中国人相信自己的股票。美林证券（Merrill Lynch）表示，美国金融资产有52%在股市，而中国只有22%。那应该有助于减少破裂的影响。

　　同时，别忘了中国股市疯狂的好的一面。中国出现这种繁荣的股市是该国经济成熟的重要一步。中国人如今有了一个投资积蓄的地方，让他们获得建立财富的办法，为退休作准备（中国几乎没有像样的退休金体系）。公司有了新的资金来源支持扩张，让它们可以摆脱对国有银行轻易贷款的不健康依赖。

　　股市的崛起还催生了每个先进经济体所需要的东西：一个运作的金融服务产业。本周关于中国中信证券投资华尔街贝尔斯登（Bear Stearns）的公告很好地反映了中国金融公司在成长，并加入全球金融体系。

　　它是一个泡沫吗？如果是，它会在两天内，两月内，两年内破裂？不可能知道。但如果够运气，有良好的管理，中国应该可以幸免于大破裂。（原标题：如果中国有一个经济泡沫破裂，有人觉察到吗？作者：MARCUS GEE）

If an economic bubble bursts in China, will anyone notice?

MARCUS GEE

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

China in late 2007 has all the marks of a bubble economy. Construction cranes clutter the skylines of booming Chinese cities. Housing prices in Shanghai have doubled.

The main index of the Shanghai stock exchange just passed 6,000 - up more than fivefold in two years.

Stock values of leading Chinese companies have soared so high that last week a Chinese bank passed General Electric to become the world's second-biggest company by market valuation. China now has more companies worth over $200-billion (U.S.) than any other nation, a remarkable feat for what, for all its successes, is still a developing country.

China has eight companies in the world's top 20 by market value, compared with seven for the United States, four for Western Europe and one for Russia. That makes no real sense, and it can't help bring to mind memories of Japan in 1989, just before its bubble burst. Japan had 14 companies in the top 20 back then.

But what looks like a bubble is not always a bubble. China's markets and asset values could go on rising for some time before they burst, just as U.S. markets did after U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan issued his famous warning about "irrational exuberance" in the midst of the dot.com market runup of the 1990s. Even if the bubble does eventually pop, it may not deflate the buoyancy of the amazing Chinese economy.

True, China looks extraordinarily bubbly at the moment. Inflation hit 6.5 per cent in August, the highest in 11 years. Economic growth reached 11.9 per cent annualized in the second quarter, the fastest clip in 12 years. China's trade surplus of $115-billion in the first half of the year was 85 per cent higher than it was a year earlier.

Then there is the wild rise of the stock market. From 2,000 last December, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3,000 in March, 4,000 in May and 5,000 in August before finally blowing past 6,000 last Monday. Stories circulate of peasants and pensioners investing their life savings just to get on the market bandwagon - a sign, surely, of an impending pop. Mr. Greenspan himself, retired but still listened to, said last spring that Chinese share prices were "clearly unsustainable."

Or are they? The runup on the Shanghai exchange is still smaller than the rise of the Tokyo exchange in the 1980s and the Nasdaq index in the late 1990s. What's more, it follows a long decline in Chinese stocks. Before beginning their remarkable ascent, share prices actually fell by more than half from 2001 to 2005.

Now consider housing prices. The 30-per-cent rise in Chinese house prices since 2002 is considerably less than the 46-per-cent runup in the United States. Economist Andy Xie, writing in London's Financial Times, notes that the total value of China's residential properties is 1.7 times gross domestic product, compared with 4.5 in 1989 in Japan and 7.5 in Hong Kong in 1997 before property markets went bust.

Japan had more than a decade of economic stagnation after its bubble popped and Hong Kong several years of hard times. It's not at all clear the same thing would happen in China. Despite the recent popularity of playing the market, only about one in 10 Chinese are believed to own stocks. Merrill Lynch says that while 52 per cent of U.S. financial assets are in stocks, the level for China is just 22 per cent. That should help minimize the effects of a crash if it comes.

In the meantime, it's worth remembering the good side of China's market madness. The emergence of a thriving, if wild and woolly, stock market in China is an important step in the country's economic maturation. Chinese now have a place to invest their savings, giving them a way to build their wealth and prepare for retirement in a country with almost no decent pension system. Companies have a new source of capital to finance their expansion, weaning them away from an unhealthy reliance on easy credit from state-run banks.

The market's rise has also given birth to something every advanced economy needs: a functioning financial services industry. This week's announcement that a leading Chinese firm, CITIC Securities Co., was investing in Wall Street's Bear Stearns Cos., nicely illustrated how Chinese financial firms are growing up and joining the global financial system.

Is it a bubble? If so, will it burst in two days, two months, two years? Impossible to know. But with luck and good management, China should be able to survive the big popping sound if it comes.