纽约时报 中国的经济难题

中国主席胡锦涛利用15日的中共十七大开幕式呼吁中国重新思考其经济道路。不同寻常的是，他的国家的领导人之前没能对此采取任何行动。

　　中国在出口产业的巨大投资所产生的紧张占据的比例惊人。不宜呼吸的空气和有毒的河水与巨大的能源消耗及日增的碳排放所造成的全球损伤争夺人们的注意力。反过来，投资产生了微薄的就业收益。中国家庭的消费力远远落后于经济增长。沿海地区肆意发展的出口业（内地付出了代价）助长收入不平等，其程度是非洲以外的地区所罕见的。

　　中国庞大的贸易顺差（2007年头九个月为1860亿美元）是一个外交噩梦。以低估货币支持出口的政策刺激了美国国会对中国进口品征收惩罚性关税的压力。

　　要是这都不足以令北京的领导人警惕，那再提一点，它的外汇政策也可能成为金融灾难。中央银行每月积累200到300亿美元的储备，以限制人民币升值。美元外汇储备如今很可能突破一万亿美元。到人民币不得不增值的那一天，人们将会看到巨大的投资损失。

　　北京必须放松对制造业出口的强调，做更多事情扩大国内消费。首先，它可以把更大份额的税收投入落后的公共卫生、教育和养老金系统。缺乏有效的社会保障网络（鼓励中国人拼命节省）是中国消费份额处于世界最低水平的原因之一。

　　可能最重要的是，北京还必须改变它人民币美元联系汇率的做法。这不仅加剧贸易顺差，而且要求利率维持在低位，以避免拉动更多资金进入该国，给该国货币造成上升压力。

　　低息给出口设施提供的极大投资，出口设施的投资又助推钢铁和建设等高能耗产业，而且没有产生多少就业。中国的就业一年只增长1%。

　　放开人民币汇率将有助于遏制投资，把投资导入更劳动密集型的轻工业和服务业，减少对环境的影响。加息也将增加家庭收入。这些加起来将有助于消费支出。

　　中国领导人在2004年意识到“重新平衡”增长的必要性。他们已经采取了一些小的步骤，包括温和提升卫生开支和减税，但他们一直过于胆怯，不敢大力推动新战略。在地方层面，出口增长仍然是唯一的现实目标。

　　北京必须意识到，中国的稳定依赖于巧妙处理从蓬勃的出口导向型增长到基础广泛的增长（较少环境伤害，而且参与更广泛）的转变。在美国，想惩罚中国的议员们必须明白他们只会培养中国人的反感，让特殊利益者更容易挥动这支旗帜抵制改革。华盛顿的猛击会令事情变得更糟。

卫报 中国取代美国成为稳定力量

国际货币基金组织17日说，在一个“捉摸不定、有可能艰难的时期”里，中国在世界经济不断变化的均势中取代美国，成为全球增长最大的贡献者。

　　国际货币基金组织公布了半年一次的全球经济展望报告。它说，在西方努力应对金融市场混乱的时候，世界越来越取决于三个主要发展中国家——中国、印度和俄罗斯——的强劲表现。报告说，中国超过11%的增长率、印度9%的增长率以及俄罗斯8%的增长率意味着，仅这三个国家就占了“过去一年全球增长的一半”。

　　国际货币基金组织说，新兴经济体的快速增长有助于抵消美国、日本和欧洲的缓慢增长。不过它强调主要发展中国家也面临自身的挑战，并指出人们担忧中国的投资过热和印度的通货膨胀上升。

　　国际货币基金组织预测美国住房价格明秀将下降5%。它对明年美国经济增长率的预测也大幅下调到1.9%，比它在今年4月份发布的上一份报告中作出的预测低0.9个百分点。

　　国际货币基金组织首席经济学家兼研究主管西蒙·约翰逊说：“预计美国的增长率仍将减缓。信贷危机很可能造成进一步后果。”

　　国际货币基金组织预测全球经济明年增长4.8%，比它今年春天的预测低0.4个百分点。它还预测，全球经济将有一次持续两个季度的暂时性震荡。


China’s Economic Puzzle

President Hu Jintao used the opening of China’s Communist Party Congress on Monday to call for China to rethink its economic path. What’s extraordinary is that his country’s leadership has failed to do anything about it before that.

The strains generated by China’s huge investments in export industries are assuming shocking proportions. Unbreathable air and noxious rivers compete for attention with the global damage caused by the enormous consumption of energy and growing carbon emissions. In return, the investments are producing meager job gains. The spending power of Chinese families is lagging far behind economic growth. The no-holds barred development of export industries along the coast, at the expense of the interior, is boosting income inequality to levels rarely seen outside of Africa.

China’s colossal trade surplus, $186 billion in the first nine months of 2007, is a diplomatic nightmare. The policy of supporting exports with an undervalued currency is fueling pressure in the United States Congress for punitive tariffs on Chinese imports.

If this were not enough to alarm the leadership in Beijing, its foreign exchange policy also threatens to become a financial disaster. The central bank is amassing $20 billion to $30 billion in dollar reserves each month to keep a lid on the yuan. The cache now probably tops $1 trillion. The inevitable day when the yuan is allowed to increase in value will see an enormous investment loss.

Beijing must ease the emphasis on manufacturing exports and do more to expand domestic consumption. To start, it could spend a much larger share of its revenues on the threadbare systems of public health, education and pensions. The lack of an effective social safety net, which encourages the Chinese to save to the hilt, is one of the reasons China’s share of consumer spending is among the lowest in the world.

Perhaps most important, Beijing must also change the way it pegs the value of the yuan to the value of the dollar. That not only pumps up the trade surplus, but it also requires interest rates to remain low to avoid pulling more money into the country and putting upward pressure on the currency.

Low interest rates have fed the humongous investment in export facilities, which boosts energy-guzzling industries like steel and construction but produces few jobs. Employment in China is growing by only 1 percent a year.

Freeing the exchange rate for the yuan would help rein in investment and channel it into light industry and services, which are more labor intensive and should put less stress on the environment. Rising interest rates would also boost household income. Together, they would contribute to consumer spending.

The Chinese leadership realized the need to “re-balance” growth in 2004. They have taken some small steps, including modest increases in health spending and tax cuts, but they have been too timid to push hard toward a new strategy. At the local level, export growth remains the only real objective.

Beijing must realize that China’s stability depends on the deft management of the transition from booming export-led growth to broadly based economic development that is less damaging to the environment and more widely shared. In this country, lawmakers who would punish China need to understand that they are merely fostering Chinese resentment and making it easier for special interests to resist reform by waving the flag. Chest-thumping in Washington makes things worse.