马来西亚星报 中国是一个强大的缓冲器

美国次贷问题不至于是灾难性的，因为各央行和货币政策已经变得更成熟和有预见性。由于塑造全球经济架构的力量变化，美国经济增长的来源扩大了。最重要的力量之一就是中国的崛起。

　　中国如今是世界第四大经济体，而且将很快超过德国成为第三大。在过去五年，中国给世界国内生产总值（GDP）增长贡献17%。中国的崛起对世界经济有重大影响。

　　首先，商品价格猛涨很大程度上是由于中国强劲的增长。生产国从价格上涨中获得很大好处。第二，尽管在过去七八年里，全球经济增长持续强劲，商品价格高企，但世界经济一直保持低通胀率。这反过来让央行得以维持低息环境，推动经济扩张。中国巨大而廉价的制造能力在其中扮演重要角色。

　　第三，中国快速的经济增长也极大低提高了它的购买力。中国如今是世界第三大进口国。这令它成为许多国家出口品的重要目的地，从而提高这些国家的增长率。中国的增长令世界经济架构更平衡。美国自二战后一直主导世界经济，“美国经济打个喷嚏，世界就感冒”。

　　由于中国成为世界经济增长的一个重要来源，世界就不用那么担心次贷问题导致美国经济大减速，从而导致全球经济崩溃的问题。尽管中国仍然不能完全取代美国的地位，美国减速的影响将大大减轻。美国上一次陷入低迷发生在2001年，当时中国经济增长8.3%，世界经济增长2.5%.

　　有人可能认为出口在中国经济中扮演越来越重要的角色，而且美国经济的减速将给中国经济增长带来很大的影响，从而限制中国支持世界经济的能力。

　　但是，从2002年到2006年，中国经济增长率在9%以上，除了2005和2006年，净进口给中国实际GDP增长的贡献低于10%。消费和投资是主要的增长贡献者，占GDP增长的80%到90%。

　　此外，在过去六年，美国在中国出口中占的份额大致不变，徘徊在21%左右。到美国的出口约占中国GDP的7.7%。因此，中国到美国的出口下降10%的话，只会抹掉中国GDP增长的0.77%。在2001年，尽管增长率已经大大低于2000年的24.2%，中国到美国的出口仍然增长4.2%。因此美国经济增长大减速预计不会对中国经济增长造成重大影响。

　　尽管中国一些银行和美国次贷市场有接触，但损失估计不大；因此，预计对经济没有实质性影响。由于中国通胀压力加大，投资者也担心中国人民银行会大力收紧货币政策，令中国经济硬着陆。

　　i Capital（资威）认为这样的机率几乎为零。首先，通胀压力主要来自食品，食品的供应受气候条件不佳以及疫病爆发影响。在2007年上半年，核心通胀率（除掉食品和能源）仅为0.9%。因此，中国人民银行不大可能为了回应暂时性的通胀压力而大幅度加息。

　　第二，尽管中国股市仍然处于起泡状态，中国政府更可能引入直接措施以应对，而不是实施例如大幅度加息等间接措施。

　　第三，2007和2008年对中国非常重要。2007年有中共十七大，2008年有奥运。中国政府不大可能让经济放缓到破坏社会稳定的程度。

　　因此，综合各种因素，i Capital认为中国将有能力扮演好它在亚洲金融危机期间曾经很好地扮演过的稳定者角色。在美国经济大减速面前，世界经济仍将能够合理增长。

China a strong buffer

The US subprime problem will not be catastrophic because central banks and monetary policy have become more sophisticated and anticipatory. Sources of US economic growth have also broadened due to the change in forces shaping the global economic structure. One of the most important forces is the rise of China

CHINA is now the world's fourth largest economy and is projected to overtake Germany as the third largest soon. China contributed 17% to the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the last five years as opposed to 16% from the US. The emergence of China has a significant impact on the world economy.

First, commodity prices have surged due to a large extent to China’s strong growth. Commodity-producing countries have benefited tremendously from the persistently high commodity prices. Second, the world economy had been experiencing low inflation rate despite the sustained strong global economic growth and high commodity prices in the past seven to eight years.

This in turn enabled central banks to maintain a low interest rate environment, which facilitated economic expansion. China’s huge and cheap manufacturing capacity played an important role in creating this favourable condition.

Third, China’s rapid economic growth has lifted her purchasing power tremendously. China is now the world’s third largest importer. This has made her an important destination for many countries’ exports, hence lifting the growth rates of these countries. China's rise has made the world’s economic structure more balanced. The US has dominated the world economy since World War Two, giving rise to the phrase “when the US economy sneezes, the world catches a cold”.

With China becoming a major source of world economic growth, the world need not worry so much that the global economy will collapse should the subprime problem cause the US economy to slow down sharply.

Although China is still unable to take the place of the US completely, the impact of a US slowdown will be significantly reduced. The last time the US economy fell into a recession in 2001, China’s economy expanded by 8.3% and the world economy expanded 2.5%.

Some people may argue that exports are playing an increasingly important role in China’s economy, and a slowdown in the US economy will affect China’s growth significantly, hence limiting her ability to support the world economy.

Well, from 2002 to 2006 when the Chinese economy expanded above 9%, with the exception of 2005 and 2006, net exports contributed less than 10% to China’s real GDP growth. Consumption and investment were the main growth contributors, accounting for 80% to 90% of overall GDP growth.

In addition, US’ share in China’s exports has been rather constant in the last six years, hovering around 21%. Exports to the US account for about 7.7% of China’s GDP. Hence, a 10% fall in China’s exports to the US would shed only 0.77 percentage point off China’s GDP growth.

In 2001, China’s exports to the US still managed to grow 4.2% although the rate of growth was substantially slower than the 24.2% increase in 2000. Therefore, a substantial slowdown in the US economic growth is not expected to have a major impact on China’s economic growth.

While a number of Chinese banks have some exposure to the US subprime market, losses are expected to be small; hence, no material impact is expected on the economy. With China’s surging inflationary pressure, investors are also worried that the People’s Bank of China (PBC) will tighten monetary policy so aggressively that China’s economy will hard land.

i Capital thinks chances of this happening are almost zero. First, the inflationary pressure came mainly from food, whereby supply was affected by bad weather conditions and a disease outbreak.

In the first half of 2007, the core inflation rate, which excluded food and energy prices, stood at a mere 0.9%. Hence, the PBC is unlikely to raise interest rates aggressively in response to this temporary spike in inflationary pressure.

Second, while China’s stock market is still in a frothy state, the Chinese government is more likely to introduce direct measures to deal with the condition rather than implement indirect measures, such as an aggressive interest rate hike.

Third, 2007 and 2008 are very important years for China. The 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held next month. This is a very important meeting as new leaders will be elected to lead the country for the next five years. Hence, party leaders cannot afford to let the economy tank.

China will host the Olympics in 2008, a highly important event to boost her international standing. It is unlikely the Chinese government will let her economy slow down so much that social stability will be undermined.

Hence, taking all factors into consideration, as the subprime problem continues to unfold, i Capital believes that China will be able to play the stabiliser role she had played so well during the Great Asian Crisis. The world economy will still be able to grow reasonably well in the face of a sharp US economic slowdown.